In the weeks ahead, several leading American solar firms will disclose their earnings results, signaling an important moment for industry watchers focused on the dynamic U.S. utility-scale solar market. According to Brian Lee, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, the sector anticipates a broadly positive outlook for 2026, with his coverage companies expected to achieve an average top-line growth of approximately 20% year over year. This forecast reflects a growing investor focus on underlying operational and market fundamentals as political and policy-related uncertainties begin to wane.
Lee underscores that investors' attention has progressively shifted away from regulatory ambiguities toward more concrete signals such as consistent growth trajectories, robust momentum in bookings, and the companies' exposure to accelerating power demand within the United States. In this context, the capacity to execute effectively and maintain strong booking volumes emerges as a critical differentiator among market participants as they enter the near term.
As the U.S. utility-scale solar sector approaches its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season, the outlook has become increasingly constructive. Reduced ambiguity around policy frameworks, coupled with enhanced visibility into order books, contributes to this improved sentiment. The risk environment, once dominated by regulatory uncertainty, now allows for more confidence in financial and operational projections.
Enphase Energy's Growth Prospects and Upgraded Rating
Among notable developments, Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) has attracted an upgrade in its analyst rating from Neutral to Buy, with the target share price rising significantly from $29 to $45. This adjustment follows Lee’s recognition of near-term revenue challenges, including an anticipated trough in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. However, these short-term concerns are balanced by several long-term drivers promoting sustained growth.
Lee expects Enphase Energy to capitalize on stronger-than-expected volume demand in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Factors underpinning this optimism include market share gains and year-end activity driven by cash or loan customers responding to the impending expiration of the 25D tax credit, incentivizing accelerated purchasing behavior. Furthermore, the company is entering 2026 from a position characterized by lean channel inventories, which supports positive momentum in output and sales.
Reflecting this improved outlook, Lee has adjusted Enphase’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates upwards across multiple years: $2.85 for 2025, $1.89 for 2026, and $2.76 for 2027. These revisions compare favorably to his previous forecasts of $2.78, $1.75, and $2.52, respectively. Correspondingly, revenue projections have been elevated to $1.47 billion for 2025 (from $1.45 billion), $1.17 billion for 2026 (up from $1.12 billion), and $1.33 billion for 2027 (increasing from $1.27 billion), with additional contributions anticipated from incremental safe harboring activity related to tax incentives.
Other Key Players in the Solar Market
Beyond Enphase Energy, Brian Lee highlights several small- and mid-cap stocks that carry a buy rating and appear positioned to benefit amid the evolving solar industry landscape. These include Array Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARRY), Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLNC), and Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SHLS). Notably, Fluence Energy and Shoals Technologies are especially well placed to capture growing demand tied to battery storage solutions, reflecting the sector's broader trend towards integrated energy management offerings.
For Fluence Energy, Lee projects first-quarter revenue of $404 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $452 million. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to show a loss of $37 million, compared to a consensus expected loss of $32 million. While these figures signal ongoing challenges, they also suggest room for improvement and potential operational leverage going forward.
Meanwhile, Shoals Technologies is forecasted to generate fourth-quarter revenue of $146 million, marginally exceeding the consensus of $145 million. Adjusted EPS is estimated at 14 cents per share, slightly above the consensus figure of 13 cents. These projections point toward modest outperformance relative to market expectations.
Market Implications and Forward View
This collection of data points and analyst sentiments collectively paints a picture of a solar sector transitioning from an environment clouded by regulatory ambiguity to one driven principally by tangible business results and market dynamics. The easing of policy noise is instrumental in redirecting investor attention to the quality of execution, bookings trends, and exposure to fundamental drivers like rising electricity demand.
Companies demonstrating strong operational discipline, competitive positioning, and the ability to capitalize on renewable energy incentives stand to distinguish themselves in an increasingly competitive landscape. Yet, market watchers remain mindful of factors such as the timing of tax credit expirations, channel inventory levels, and order book visibility as key variables shaping near- to medium-term outcomes.
While early 2026 could present some revenue pressure points, particularly for firms anticipant of troughs tied to incentive cycles, the sustained underlying demand and strategic momentum evident in several companies provide a basis for optimism about the sector’s longer-term trajectory.