For more than ten years, investors outside a select few have sought opportunities to invest in SpaceX, Elon Musk's private aerospace venture. Early institutional investors such as Fidelity and Alphabet gained exposure through a $1 billion funding round approximately a decade ago, valuing SpaceX around $10 billion at the time. Presently, market speculation suggests that SpaceX could pursue an initial public offering (IPO) as early as 2026, possibly achieving a valuation near $1.5 trillion, marking a 150-fold increase in value over ten years.
However, questions remain whether SpaceX will proceed with such an IPO or if these rumors might be premature indications.
Elon Musk’s Historical Position on a SpaceX IPO
Musk has consistently refrained from taking SpaceX public, citing the company’s primary mission to establish a human settlement on Mars—a multidecade venture unlikely to generate profits in the near term. This long-term horizon, he argues, would conflict with shareholder expectations in a publicly traded entity focused on quarterly or annual financial returns.
Since 2013, Musk has indicated that an IPO would only be feasible once significant milestones, such as the regular operation of the Mars Colonial Transporter (now known as Starship), are achieved. This position underscores SpaceX’s commitment to private ownership until a more mature operational phase is realized.
Recent Valuation Developments and Secondary Stock Offering
Amid growing speculation, a recent secondary stock sale took place that targeted an $800 billion valuation for SpaceX, doubling the valuation compared to the company's July 2025 funding round, which was valued at approximately $400 billion. This notable increase occurred over just a few months, with the previous valuation at $350 billion as of the end of 2024.
The secondary offering was executed successfully at the $800 billion target valuation, despite earlier doubts reported by financial outlets regarding SpaceX's ability to reach this level. This transaction suggests strong investor appetite at the higher valuation tier.
Notably, the secondary offering was actually conducted by Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet division, rather than the parent company itself. This nuance has led some to speculate whether hints of a SpaceX IPO could have been a strategic maneuver to facilitate the successful sale of Starlink shares.
The Prospective IPO of Starlink
Elon Musk has repeatedly mentioned the potential for a Starlink IPO separate from SpaceX's public listing. Discussions about taking Starlink public date back to at least 2020, with Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell affirming Starlink as a suitable business candidate for an IPO. Musk himself stated in 2021 that such a public offering might occur once Starlink’s financial performance becomes reasonably predictable.
More concretely, Musk projected in 2022 that a Starlink IPO could be feasible three to four years from that time frame, aligning with potential public offering windows in the mid-2020s.
This approach would allow investors to access SpaceX's profitable segment without exposure to the capital-intensive and long-term Mars colonization projects. Starlink currently accounts for the majority of SpaceX’s revenues and profits, producing about 76% of the $15.5 billion in revenue attributed to SpaceX in 2025, highlighting its financial significance within the corporate structure.
Consequently, an IPO of Starlink could facilitate capital raising that SpaceX would then deploy to fund its broader, more ambitious objectives, including interplanetary colonization.
Implications and Possible Scenarios
The potential for a Starlink IPO compels investors and market observers to reassess expectations for SpaceX’s public offering. While a full SpaceX IPO remains a possibility in 2026, the preference for a targeted Starlink listing seems increasingly plausible.
The strategic decision to list a profitable and cash-generating subsidiary like Starlink offers a cleaner, more predictable investment opportunity that aligns better with typical public market expectations. This move could satisfy market demand for access to SpaceX-related investments without compromising ongoing private control over the parent company’s wider ambitions.