Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR) continues to demonstrate solid performance indicators as activity surrounding its Sphere Experience Wizard of Oz show grows stronger. Industry analyst David Joyce from Seaport Research recently upgraded the company’s rating from Neutral to Buy and attached a price target of $106 to the stock.
The catalyst behind this positive shift is multi-faceted. Firstly, attendance levels at the Wizard of Oz events under Sphere Experience are showing sustained strength, accompanied by an increase in the number of shows scheduled. This expansion appears not only to cover higher volume but also improved ticket pricing, enhancing revenue prospects for Sphere Entertainment.
In his analysis, Joyce articulated that the calendar for musical artist residency events has expanded, particularly in the first and second quarters of the upcoming year. This build-out in event scheduling positions the company favorably against 2025 performance benchmarks, indicating an expectation of year-over-year growth.
Beyond the current horizon, there is growing anticipation within the analyst community of an additional Sphere franchise announcement. While no specific details have been publicized, the market is attuned to the likelihood of further expansion of the company’s entertainment portfolio. Moreover, indications suggest that Sphere’s venue bookings for 2026 are near full capacity, although some dates remain unannounced, emphasizing continued demand.
From a financial standpoint, the positive developments have led to sizable upward revisions in revenue and earnings estimates. For the fourth-quarter Sphere Experience segment, sales are now projected at approximately $184 million, a substantial rise from the $87 million recorded in the previous year’s corresponding period, and following strong third-quarter revenue of $100 million.
Overall, Sphere segment revenue for the quarter is forecast to increase by 9%, reaching an estimated $259 million, which represents a 53% growth year-over-year. When consolidating Sphere’s results with MSG Networks, total revenue projections ascend to $389 million, marking a 26% increase relative to the prior year.
Profitability metrics have similarly been revised higher. Operating income for the Sphere segment in the fourth quarter is anticipated to rise 16% to $70.5 million, reflecting efficient cost management alongside revenue growth.
Specifically, for the Wizard of Oz production, the attendance figure estimate now stands at 200 shows, up from 170 performances of the prior year’s "Postcard from Earth" and 30 shows from the "V-U2" series. These comparative figures underscore the production's strong audience appeal and the company’s ability to expand its scheduling.
Market reaction to these updates was positive, with Sphere Entertainment’s shares climbing 5.06% to $95.99 in midday trading on Friday. The stock is trading close to its year-high price of $97.20, reflecting investor confidence amid the upward revisions.