At the outset of 2026, seasoned investment analysts Tyler Crowe, Matt Frankel, and Jon Quast convened to discuss pivotal trends and forecasts likely to shape key industries throughout the year. Their dialogue centered on three major sectors: artificial intelligence, solar energy, and the housing market, culminating in a review of specific stocks that reflect these anticipated shifts.
Artificial Intelligence: A Shift in Market Dynamics
Jon Quast introduced a provocative forecast, suggesting that the AI landscape could witness a significant change with Alphabet's Gemini AI catching up to OpenAI's ChatGPT in market share by the end of the year. He emphasized Gemini's rapid gains in market presence, citing that over the previous year ChatGPT's dominance had decreased from roughly 87% to 68%, while Gemini increased its footprint to about 18%, primarily driven by the release of Gemini 3.
Gemini's integration across Alphabet's product ecosystem, including Gmail, combined with its access to proprietary tensor processing units and cloud infrastructure, was highlighted as key advantages enabling this growth. Quast underscored Alphabet's financial strength, enabling sustained investment in generative AI technologies compared to competitors operating with slimmer margins.
Both Crowe and Frankel expressed skepticism regarding the timeline, with Crowe assigning a moderate confidence level and Frankel expressing lower conviction, noting that substantial shifts in AI market share often require extended periods rather than a singular year.
Quast also identified Elon Musk's X AI Grok as a potential contender, due to Musk's ecosystem of ventures that could mutually reinforce advancements in AI for autonomous vehicles, robotics, and neural interfaces. The backing of substantial resources and strategic alignment across Musk's business interests could position X AI Grok for future growth in AI market share.
Solar Energy: Fast Deployment to Meet Growing Demand
Tyler Crowe projected strong solar industry performance in 2026, predicting that the sector could outperform the broader market by doubling its returns. He attributed this outlook to several factors including the accelerating energy demands driven by AI hyperscalers and the limitations on other energy sources' deployment speeds.
Supporting this, Crowe referenced General Electric Vernova’s manufacturing constraints on natural gas turbines, noting that orders are sold out through 2028 with limited production capacity thereafter. The ramp-up to increase this production is projected to extend beyond 2028, indicating supply limitations and slower deployment timelines for natural gas power generation compared to solar installations.
In contrast, solar panel manufacturers like First Solar have demonstrated the capability to bring new production facilities online within approximately 18 to 24 months. Additionally, Crowe pointed out that solar deployment in regulatory and cost-favorable regions such as Texas is growing rapidly, highlighting the state's grid operator, ERCOT, as having the most solar capacity added in 2024.
Crucially, Crowe emphasized the importance of speed in adding new grid capacity, suggesting that solar’s advantage in deployment speed is driving its increased adoption despite concerns about subsidies and pricing. In response to subsidy reductions, he suggested solar panel prices would adjust to remain profitable and competitive, reinforcing solar's viability as a preferred energy choice in the short term.
The discussion also explored the complementary role of battery storage. Quast raised the question regarding energy storage's critical function in mitigating solar's intermittency issues. Crowe referred to data from Berkeley’s Department of Energy lab showing that in 2024, battery storage was the fourth largest source of added grid capacity, closely tied with the expansion of solar and wind power. He recommended that the growth of battery storage and solar energy systems are intrinsically linked, with storage systems smoothing fluctuations and reducing grid strain, which is a prerequisite for the broader adoption of solar power.
Housing Market Recovery: Signs of Resilience Amid Challenges
Matt Frankel forecasted a 30% rise in average home builder stocks in 2026, reflecting expectations for an industry rebound. He noted that Home Builder stocks have been trading at valuations indicative of negative growth, with many only trading for single-digit price-to-earnings multiples. Frankel linked the potential rebound to anticipated interest rate cuts which could bring mortgage rates below current levels near 6.2%-6.3% and incentivize potential buyers who have thus far stayed on the sidelines.
He also highlighted that in many regions, including his local market, buying a new home can be more cost-effective than purchasing a comparable existing home, enhancing homebuilders' attractiveness to buyers. Frankel observed that despite recent pressures, home builder margins remain historically robust, meaning a market recovery could translate into significant bottom-line improvement.
Tyler Crowe expressed more caution, suggesting that employment trends and overall economic sentiment could play a more significant role than interest rates alone. He noted that concerns over AI-driven job disruptions might dampen buyer willingness to commit to home purchases, tempering enthusiasm for a rapid housing market upswing.
Jon Quast aligned to some extent with Frankel, attributing his moderate confidence to the potential for home builder performance to improve in the near term. Both acknowledged uncertainties in the broader economic environment that could influence outcomes.
Stocks in Focus at the Beginning of 2026
Turning to specific investment opportunities, Matt Frankel spotlighted Prologis (ticker: PLD), an industrial real estate firm nearing a 52-week high but still below its all-time peak. Frankel noted that management anticipates an inflection point in market conditions for rent and occupancy growth, supported by CEO Hamid Mogadim’s comments on exceptionally strong demand conditions.
Prologis is additionally expanding into data centers, leveraging its scale and financial flexibility to meet the rising infrastructure demands of AI applications, which could position the company favorably in coming years.
Tyler Crowe advocated for Array Technologies (ticker: ARRY), a manufacturer of solar tracking systems that enhance panel efficiency by following the sun's movement throughout the day. This technology allows for more efficient use of land, an increasingly valuable factor given the high cost of land acquisition for utility-scale solar projects.
Array Technologies has experienced rapid revenue growth and improving margins, supported by strong order backlogs despite challenges from higher interest rates in previous years. Crowe emphasized that as solar demand grows, such tracker systems will likely continue to capture market share versus fixed mount systems due to superior cost efficiency per watt.
Jon Quast recommended Floor and Decor Holdings (ticker: FND), a home improvement retailer specializing in flooring products and catering to both professional contractors and homeowners. Despite recent underperformance tied to weak existing home sales, the company benefits from planned expansion from 260 to 500 stores over several years and operates profitably with a historically low valuation of about 1.5 times sales.
Quast expressed hope that improvements in existing home sales would stimulate renovation activity supporting Floor and Decor's growth. Frankel agreed that the current valuation presents a low-risk opportunity despite recent headwinds.
Concluding Perspectives
The panel's collective insights highlighted three main investment themes for 2026: a possible shakeup in AI leadership with Alphabet's Gemini vying for parity with ChatGPT; accelerated solar energy sector growth propelled by deployment speed and necessity for clean energy amid AI infrastructure demands; and signs of a turnaround in the housing market contingent on economic conditions beyond just interest rates.
The specific stock picks from Prologis, Array Technologies, and Floor and Decor echo these themes, offering targeted exposure to the industrial infrastructure supporting AI, innovations in solar technology, and home improvement sectors buoyed by housing activity.
While acknowledging varying degrees of confidence in these predictions, the analysts stressed the importance of monitoring economic indicators and industry evolutions closely as 2026 progresses.