Strategy Inc., known for maintaining a vast treasury in Bitcoin, is scheduled to issue its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 following the market close on Thursday. This earnings announcement is highly anticipated by investors given the company's unique exposure to cryptocurrency price dynamics and recent market behavior.
Market analysts have projected that Strategy Inc. will report a net loss of $18.64 per share for the quarter, which marks a significant increase in losses compared to the $3.20 per share loss recorded during the same period last year. Revenue expectations are slightly lower, with estimates around $118.92 million, down from $120.70 million reported in the prior-year quarter. This contraction in revenue, although moderate, aligns with broader market headwinds impacting companies with crypto asset holdings.
The company’s stock, traded under the ticker MSTR, carries a consensus price target of $480.53 aggregated from the forecasts of 12 financial analysts. The highest price forecast, standing at $705, was issued by Benchmark in August of the previous year. However, more recent analyst ratings have adjusted this outlook downward, settling at an average target near $389.33. This adjusted target still implies a substantial potential upside of approximately 160% from current levels, though it reflects lowered expectations compared to past projections. Notably, all contemporary analyst ratings maintain a “Buy” recommendation on the stock but have substantially moderated their price targets.
Investors should take note of several crucial indicators that offer insight into market sentiment and the stock’s price trajectory. The short interest for MSTR shares recently rose to $34.74 million, representing nearly 13% of the total share float. This increased short positioning suggests a modestly bearish stance among some investors who are anticipating possible downside risks.
Technical analysis further reveals mixed signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which evaluates momentum by comparing exponential moving averages, has triggered a “Sell” indication according to TradingView data. Contrarily, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures overbought or oversold conditions on a scale, is currently neutral, indicating neither strong buying nor selling pressure.
A pivotal factor affecting Strategy Inc.'s financial outlook is the price performance of Bitcoin, which constitutes the bulk of the company’s reserves. At present, the company holds approximately 712,647 Bitcoin units with an aggregate valuation approaching $54.53 billion. These assets were acquired at an average cost of $76,040 per Bitcoin. Market volatility over the recent weekend saw Bitcoin briefly dip below $75,000, temporarily undermining the value of Strategy Inc.'s holdings and pushing them into an unrealized loss position.
In terms of the stock’s own price performance, MSTR has experienced a steep decline over the past six months, losing more than half of its value. This depreciation at the equity level has outpaced Bitcoin’s own price corrections, resulting in a stock that trades at a discount relative to the market value of its Bitcoin assets. Analysts and investors watching this disparity view the impacts of Bitcoin’s 23% downturn during the previous quarter as a significant contributor to earnings pressure for Strategy Inc.
Recent trading data shows that Bitcoin was priced at approximately $76,182.83, reflecting a 2.62% decrease within the prior 24-hour period, according to Benzinga Pro. Meanwhile, Strategy Inc.'s shares recorded a 4.55% gain during Friday’s regular session, closing at $149.71. Despite this uptick, the stock's price remains down nearly 57% over the past year, indicating sustained weakness compared to market and sector peers.
According to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, which assess stocks on momentum, price trends, and valuation, MSTR currently holds a weaker stance across short, medium, and long-term price trends and is flagged with a poor value rating. These factors underscore ongoing caution from investors and analysts alike.
In summary, Strategy Inc.’s imminent earnings release comes at a time of pronounced uncertainty stemming from volatile Bitcoin prices and a complex market environment. The report will be scrutinized for indications of financial resilience or further deterioration, particularly given the company's concentrated cryptocurrency exposure and associated balance sheet risks.