Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ: SMCI) saw its stock price decline on Tuesday as investors prepared for the company’s second-quarter earnings announcement scheduled after the market closes. The downward trend in shares reflects a cautious outlook from the market, stirred by guidance details and recent financial performance.
The company is projected to post earnings per share of 46 cents on revenues totaling approximately $10.38 billion for the quarter. These forecasts fall close to the low end of the firm’s earlier guidance issued in November, when projected revenue was set between $10 billion and $11 billion, with non-GAAP earnings in a range of 46 to 54 cents per share. The proximity of current estimates to the bottom of this range has possibly contributed to investor apprehension.
Looking back at the previous quarter, Super Micro Computer registered net sales of $5.0 billion, marking a decrease from both the preceding quarter’s $5.8 billion and the $5.9 billion reported in the same quarter of the prior year. Earnings per share on a diluted basis also suffered, declining to 26 cents from 31 cents in the prior quarter and sharply down from 67 cents year-over-year. The company’s gross margin witnessed a contraction, standing at 9.3%, down narrowly from 9.5% in the previous quarter and a more pronounced decline from 13.1% one year earlier.
Despite recent revenue pressures, CEO Charles Liang highlighted the company’s strategic pivot toward becoming a key player in artificial intelligence and datacenter infrastructure solutions. Notably, Super Micro announced Blackwell Ultra orders exceeding $13 billion, underpinning expectations to reach at least $36 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2026.
Analyst opinions on the stock have diverged in recent months. Rosenblatt maintained a buy rating this week with a target price of $55.00, the most optimistic among recent evaluations. Conversely, Goldman Sachs issued a sell rating as of January 13 with a much lower target of $26.00. Citigroup held a neutral stance on January 20, revising its price target downward from $48.00 to $39.00, while Mizuho also adopted a neutral rating earlier in the month, cutting its target from $45.00 to $31.00. Bank of America Securities assigned a sell rating on December 2 with a target price of $34.00.
On Tuesday, Super Micro Computer shares declined roughly 1.99%, trading near $29.13 at the time of reporting, reflecting investor caution as the earnings release approaches.
Key Points
- Super Micro Computer’s stock is trading lower ahead of its Q2 earnings release, with estimates for 46 cents per share on $10.38 billion in revenue near the lower bound of prior guidance.
- The previous quarter showed declines in net sales, EPS, and gross margins compared to both the prior quarter and the year-ago period.
- The company is focusing its strategic direction on AI and datacenter infrastructure, supported by $13 billion in Blackwell Ultra orders and ambitious 2026 revenue goals.
- Market analysts hold a spectrum of ratings from buy to sell, with price targets ranging notably from $26.00 to $55.00.
Risks and Uncertainties
- Revenue and earnings estimates reflective of the lower end of prior guidance indicate potential risk of underperformance.
- Recent declines in sales and profit margins could signal operational challenges or market headwinds.
- The divergence in analyst ratings and wide range of target prices suggests significant market uncertainty regarding future performance.
- Dependence on strategic transformation and achievement of large AI-related order targets introduces execution risk.