Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is on track to achieve a historic fourth-quarter performance, bolstered by accelerating demand for next-generation semiconductor technologies, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure sectors. Market analysts and investors are increasingly optimistic about the company's ability to capitalize on growth opportunities amid sustained interest in advanced chips.
According to a compilation by LSEG SmartEstimate, which consolidates forecasts from 19 analysts, TSMC is expected to post a 27% year-over-year increase in net profit for the quarter ended December 31, reaching approximately 475.2 billion New Taiwanese dollars, equivalent to $15.02 billion. This anticipated surge places the contract chipmaker on course to surpass its previous earnings records, further solidifying its financial trajectory. The company is scheduled to disclose detailed guidance for the upcoming first quarter and full fiscal year in an earnings announcement on Thursday.
TSMC has already released preliminary results showing a 20.5% rise in fourth-quarter revenue to 1.05 trillion New Taiwan dollars (around $33.1 billion), exceeding market expectations and underscoring the strength in its core manufacturing operations. The company’s careful utilization of cutting-edge 3-nanometer fabrication processes has been integral to this revenue expansion, with particular contribution from Apple Inc.'s usage of the A19 chip in its iPhone 17 lineup, as highlighted by Galen Zeng, senior research manager at IDC.
Looking ahead, IDC has revised its revenue growth forecast for TSMC in 2026 upward to a range of 25% to 30%, increased from an earlier estimate of 22% to 26%. This adjustment reflects the anticipated burgeoning demand for AI server accelerators and the emergence of revenue streams from advanced 2-nanometer technology nodes. Zeng also noted that the AI server accelerator segment alone is projected to expand by 78% year-over-year in 2026.
These projections have led Wall Street analysts to adjust their outlooks positively. Investment firms emphasize TSMC’s pivotal position in the AI hardware ecosystem and its increasingly constrained advanced chip production capacity. Goldman Sachs has raised its price target by 35% to 2,330 New Taiwan dollars, factoring in expected 30% revenue growth for 2026. Meanwhile, JPMorgan forecasts operating margins could exceed 50%, a level not seen in three years, indicative of improving profitability metrics amid strong market demand.
Despite these optimistic forecasts, TSMC’s shares experienced a slight decline of 0.56% in premarket trading on Monday, trading around $321.83, approaching a 52-week high of $333.08. This market movement reflects the broader dynamics and volatility often seen in semiconductor stock valuations, influenced by supply chain, demand cycles, and investor sentiment.
TSMC continues to demonstrate robust operational execution through its advanced node offerings and strategic alignment with major industry players like Apple. Its earnings momentum aligns with growing AI-powered technological applications which require increasingly sophisticated chip architectures. As the company reports its upcoming earnings, market participants will closely monitor guidance to confirm growth sustainability and capacity utilization efficiencies amid a competitive semiconductor landscape.