January 23, 2026
Finance

Taiwan Semiconductor Strategizes Mature-Node Production Shift Amid Capital Efficiency Drive

TSMC reallocates capacity towards advanced packaging while leveraging overseas fabs to sustain mature-node output

Summary

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. is undertaking a structural shift in its manufacturing footprint, specifically targeting mature-node production capacity. The company aims to cut about 15% to 20% of 12-inch mature-node capacity at its Fab14 site by 2028, reallocating resources to advanced packaging technologies. Utilization rates at older 40–90nm nodes hover around 80% with little short-term improvement expected. To continue serving demand for mature and mid-range nodes, TSMC plans to increase production capacity at overseas fabs in Japan and Europe, and to transfer certain equipment to affiliated entities like VIS.

Key Points

TSMC plans to reduce 12-inch mature-node capacity at Fab14 by 15%–20% by 2028 due to persistently low utilization.
Utilization rates of older 40–90nm nodes are about 80%, with limited expectations for near-term recovery.
Expansion of overseas fabs in Japan (Fab23) and Europe (Fab24) is central to maintaining mature and mid-range node supply.
TSMC affiliate VIS will expand production of mature nodes at its Singapore VSMC plant by acquiring tools from TSMC for 130nm–40nm processes.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) has announced a strategic restructuring of its mature-node production operations as part of its broader plan to optimize capital allocation and boost manufacturing efficiency. This initiative specifically involves a significant reduction in mature-node capacity at its Fab14 manufacturing site.

According to recent data from Counterpoint Foundry Service’s Monthly Intelligence Report, TSMC intends to cut its 12-inch mature-node output at Fab14 by an estimated 15% to 20% by the year 2028. This decision arises from persistently low utilization rates on legacy nodes, which have remained around 80%, particularly in the 40 to 90 nanometer process ranges. The limited recovery prospects for these older nodes have prompted a strategic pivot towards expanding capacities in higher-value segments of the semiconductor market, especially advanced packaging technologies.

The move to downscale mature-node production in favor of advanced packaging capabilities reflects TSMC’s focus on reallocating its cleanroom space, manufacturing equipment, and capital investments. Such a reallocation is expected to enhance manufacturing efficiency and profitability by concentrating resources on segments exhibiting stronger demand and growth potential.

To ensure continuous supply for customers that rely heavily on mature and mid-range nodes, TSMC is increasing its dependence on its overseas fabrication facilities and affiliated platforms. In Japan, for instance, the Kumamoto facility (Fab23) is projected to ramp up production in the 40/45nm and 12/16nm nodes by the end of 2026. This expansion supports growing demand from sectors such as automotive and image signal processing (ISP).

Meanwhile, the Dresden fabrication plant in Europe (Fab24) is advancing toward equipment installation slated for 2027. It plans to establish capacity for 22/28nm and 12/16nm nodes in the latter half of this decade. Key manufacturing tools currently housed at Fab14 are expected to be redeployed to these overseas locations. This redistribution strategy is designed to improve overall asset utilization without incurring extensive overseas capital expenditures.

Additionally, TSMC’s affiliate, VIS, is playing a crucial role in absorbing mature-node workload. VIS intends to acquire 12-inch semiconductor fabrication tools from TSMC to bolster its production at the Singapore-based VSMC facility, particularly in the 130nm to 40nm process range. This delineation of labor within the corporation positions TSMC to concentrate on advanced logic and packaging technologies, while VIS efficiently manages the steady demand for mature-node chips.

By 2028, TSMC expects to phase out approximately 50,000 wafers per month of production capacity at Fab14. This retrenchment is anticipated to grant the company enhanced profitability and operational flexibility, simultaneously preserving diversified supply channels for its customers.

The outlined realignment is a foundational element within TSMC’s planned capital expenditure budget, which ranges from $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026. This significant investment underscores the company’s commitment to adapting its manufacturing capabilities to evolving market demands.

TSMC, recognized as a $1.7 trillion contract semiconductor foundry, has seen its stock price appreciate by 45% over the past 12 months. Recently, Nvidia Corp. has reportedly surpassed Apple Inc. as TSMC’s largest customer, highlighting shifting dynamics in its client base.

At the time of this report, Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares were trading modestly higher by 0.42%, reaching $328.75 in premarket sessions.

Risks
  • Continued weak utilization at legacy nodes could pressure profitability if reallocation plans are delayed or ineffective.
  • Reliance on overseas fabs and affiliated platforms introduces potential supply chain and operational complexities.
  • Capital expenditure commitments of $52 billion to $56 billion carry execution and financial risks amid changing market conditions.
  • Shifting customer demand patterns, including the transition in the largest customer from Apple to Nvidia, may affect future capacity planning and revenue streams.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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