January 28, 2026
Finance

Tesla Faces Anticipated Decline in Q4 Earnings With Mixed Analyst Forecasts Ahead of Results

Leading analysts adjust Tesla price targets and ratings as market awaits Q4 financial disclosure

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Summary

Tesla, Inc. prepares to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter, with market expectations pointing toward a decrease in earnings per share and revenue compared to the previous year. Recent adjustments by prominent analysts reveal a range of opinions on Tesla’s valuation and future performance ahead of the earnings call scheduled for January 28. This report examines the current estimates, analyst ratings, and recent stock activity to provide a detailed view of the company’s near-term financial outlook.

Key Points

Tesla is expected to report a decrease in Q4 earnings per share to 45 cents from 73 cents a year earlier.
Quarterly revenue forecasts anticipate a decline to approximately $24.78 billion compared to $25.71 billion previously.
Notable analysts display varied perspectives with ratings spanning Underweight to Buy and price targets ranging from $25.28 to $551.
Tesla’s stock experienced a slight drop of 1% in anticipation of the earnings release, closing at $430.90 prior to the announcement.

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), the electric vehicle and clean energy company headquartered in Austin, Texas, is set to publish its earnings report for the fourth quarter after market close on Wednesday, January 28. Market consensus views anticipate a downturn in Tesla’s quarterly earnings per share (EPS), with an expected figure of 45 cents per share, a decline from the 73 cents per share reported in the corresponding quarter last year.

Revenue projections, according to data gathered from Benzinga Pro, estimate Tesla’s quarterly total at approximately $24.78 billion. This contrasts with the $25.71 billion earned during the same period in the previous year, indicating a forecasted slight reduction in total sales.

Historically, Tesla has demonstrated a performance trend of exceeding analyst revenue expectations, having outperformed these estimates in the two most recent quarters and in four out of the last ten quarters overall. This track record evidences the company’s occasional ability to surpass market forecasts despite headwinds.

Reflective of recent market sentiment, Tesla’s stock price witnessed a marginal decline of 1%, closing at $430.90 on Tuesday prior to the earnings announcement. This drop signals cautious investor positioning in anticipation of the quarterly results.

Within the analyst community, opinions and price targets have recently undergone revisions, reflecting varied assessments of Tesla’s near-term prospects.

Colin Langan, an analyst at Wells Fargo, has upheld an Underweight rating on Tesla shares while modestly raising his price target to $130 from $120 as of January 12, 2026. Langan’s recommendations have achieved a 50% accuracy rate, indicating a moderate success level in forecasting Tesla’s stock moves.

Similarly, Gordon Johnson of CLJ Research reaffirmed his Sell rating on Tesla stock and increased the price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on January 7, 2026. Johnson shares the same accuracy rate of 50%, suggesting his projections maintain a balanced track record.

On the other hand, William Stein from Truist Securities has maintained a Hold rating for Tesla but slightly lowered the price target from $444 to $439 on January 2, 2026. Stein’s accuracy rate stands notably higher at 87%, implying his ratings are considerably reliable relative to peers.

Ben Kallo, an analyst at Baird, keeps an Outperform rating with a price target set at $548 as of December 30, 2026. Kallo’s track record shows an accuracy percentage of 79%, indicating a strong performance in correctly assessing Tesla’s prospects.

George Gianarikas from Canaccord Genuity continues to endorse Tesla stock with a Buy rating, boosting the price target from $482 to $551 as of December 23, 2025. Gianarikas’s accuracy rate is noted at 69%, suggesting a generally solid predictive capability.

Together, these insights portray a spectrum of market sentiments, with some analysts expressing cautious skepticism through sell or underweight ratings and lower price targets, while others maintain confident outlooks reflected in outperform and buy ratings backed by heightened valuations.

Complementing these evaluations, Benzinga offers investors accessible analyst ratings and market data to track stock performance metrics in real time. Their tools allow for sorting of analyst opinions by various parameters, enabling detailed appraisal of market consensus dynamics surrounding Tesla.

Currently, Benzinga’s proprietary rankings position Tesla with a Momentum score of 73.24, a Quality rating of 48.59, and a relatively low Value score of 4.33. This data reflects certain strengths in stock price movement and qualitative metrics while highlighting valuation concerns among investors.

Collectively, these factors emphasize a complex investment landscape ahead of Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings announcement. Investors and analysts alike are preparing to scrutinize the company’s operational efficiency, backlog conversion, and cash flow generation in order to better understand the earnings trajectory amid evolving market conditions.

Risks
  • Anticipated decline in earnings per share and revenue could indicate operational or market challenges for Tesla.
  • Mixed analyst ratings and diverse price targets reflect uncertainty and potential volatility in the stock.
  • The company’s ability to convert backlog and manage working capital effectively remains to be seen in the upcoming report.
  • Tesla’s historical earnings beat rate suggests variability, underscoring the importance of upcoming financial disclosures for future outlooks.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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