During a recent discussion on the All-In Podcast, Jason Calacanis, an active technology investor, provided insights on Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) cutting-edge humanoid robot, Optimus. The remarks followed his firsthand visit to Tesla's robotics facility, where he was accompanied by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The visit took place on a Sunday at 10 a.m., during which Calacanis observed the Optimus 3 model and teams of engineers engaged in ongoing robotic development.
Calacanis expressed a strong conviction that the Optimus robot might ultimately overshadow Tesla's legacy as an automotive manufacturer. He stated, "Nobody will remember that Tesla ever made a car. They will only remember the Optimus," highlighting Musk's vision to produce potentially a billion units of this humanoid robot.
Elon Musk has articulated ambitious goals for Optimus, suggesting at a Tesla shareholder meeting that the robot could contribute to eradicating poverty. Musk also projected that once mass production scales up, the cost per Optimus unit might fall within a range of $20,000 to $30,000, a figure intended to make the technology accessible to a broad audience.
Calacanis further emphasized the role of advanced artificial intelligence technologies, particularly large language models, in enabling the Optimus robots to "understand the world and then do things in the world that we don’t want to do." As an angel investor in Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER), he described the Optimus project as "the most transformative technology product ever made in the history of humanity." He even predicted a future ratio of one robot per human, underscoring the potential scale of deployment.
While Tesla pursues the development of Optimus, the project is not without competition. Chinese robotics firm Unitree has demonstrated highly agile robots capable of complex dance routines and acrobatics, showcasing technological abilities that may pose competitive challenges for Tesla's humanoid robot efforts.
Overall, Tesla's investment in humanoid robotics reflects a strategic pivot toward integrating advanced AI-driven automation with potential broad-reaching societal benefits, distinct from its traditional automotive manufacturing focus. The ongoing development efforts are closely observed by both investors and industry leaders given their prospective impact on labor, productivity, and technology.
Key Points:
- Jason Calacanis visited Tesla's Optimus development lab with Elon Musk and witnessed the Optimus 3 robot and engineering teams in action.
- Calacanis believes Optimus could eclipse Tesla's automotive legacy, projecting production to potentially reach a billion units.
- Musk has posited that Optimus could help eliminate poverty and aims for a per-unit cost between $20,000 and $30,000 in mass production.
- Integration of large language AI models is considered essential for Optimus to perform tasks humans prefer not to engage in, indicating high potential for transformative societal impact.
Risks and Uncertainties:
- Mass production at target prices remains uncertain and faces technological, manufacturing, and economic challenges.
- Competitive pressures exist from robotics firms like China's Unitree, which are demonstrating advanced capabilities.
- The rate of adoption and integration of humanoid robots into everyday life may face unanticipated societal and practical hurdles.
- The extent to which AI models will successfully enable Optimus to perform complex real-world tasks is still developing and unproven at scale.
Disclosure: This analysis is based solely on publicly available information and reflects statements made by individuals involved with Tesla and related investors. No new financial advice or projections are provided.