President Donald Trump recently addressed the ongoing turmoil in Iran characterized by widespread protests and the resulting casualties among demonstrators. Speaking on The Hugh Hewitt Show on Thursday, Trump acknowledged the deaths as linked to issues surrounding crowd control but stopped short of detailing any explicit retaliatory measures against the Iranian regime. He issued a clear admonition, stating, "That if they do that, they're going to have to pay hell," conveying an intention to hold Iran accountable while deliberately maintaining ambiguity regarding specific repercussions.
When questioned about the prospect of engaging with opposition figures, particularly the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, Trump described Pahlavi as a "nice person" but indicated uncertainty about the appropriateness of meeting him at this stage. This reflects a cautious approach to involvement in Iran’s complex political dynamics. Trump further conveyed the sentiment that in terms of regime change, it may be prudent to refrain from direct intervention and instead observe the evolution of events within Iran to discern which leaders organically emerge.
Reza Pahlavi represents the monarchist faction within Iran's fractious opposition, with some backing from international actors such as Israel. However, President Trump’s comments imply a possible reluctance on Washington’s part to endorse Pahlavi’s ambitions as the leading figure in a post-regime transition scenario, signaling potential skepticism regarding his role in shaping Iran’s future governance.
In response to escalating protests, the Iranian government implemented a nationwide internet shutdown, intensifying isolation and control measures. This action has drawn sharp criticism from opposition figures abroad, including Pahlavi, who thanked President Trump for reaffirming his commitment to holding the Tehran regime accountable. Pahlavi simultaneously urged European leaders to take more assertive steps in addressing the crisis.
Concurrently, speculation involving the longevity of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has surged significantly on predictive trading platforms. On Polymarket, the market volume for bets assessing whether Khamenei will cease to be Supreme Leader by January 31 has climbed to $4.7 million, ranking it among the most heavily wagered propositions. This trend underscores the heightened international focus on the potential shifts in Iran’s leadership driven by public dissent.
The backdrop of this political unrest also features heightened warnings against possible external interference. Iran has cautioned against United States involvement in quelling the protests, while Trump has previously indicated that the US would support Iranian protesters should the government resort to violent suppression.
Financial markets have responded to these geopolitical developments, particularly in the energy sector. Oil prices experienced a notable decline of nearly 20% in 2025 primarily due to an oversupply paired with weak demand. Nevertheless, ongoing instability in Iran, alongside situations in Venezuela, continues to represent a latent risk factor capable of unsettling global energy markets. At the time of the latest trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude was priced higher by 1.09%, reaching $58.39 per barrel.
In summation, President Trump’s recent statements and the broader context of Iranian unrest highlight a scenario marked by firm warnings towards the Iranian leadership, nuanced attitudes toward opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, and a reluctant stance on intervention. The geopolitical uncertainty remains particularly significant for global energy dynamics and international diplomatic relations.