February 5, 2026
Finance

Uber Revises Growth Forecasts Following Strong Q4 Results

Despite exceeding revenue expectations, Uber's earnings per share fall short, prompting analysts to lower price targets

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Summary

Uber Technologies reported a 20% year-over-year increase in revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, reaching $14.37 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. However, adjusted earnings per share came in at 71 cents, below the expected 80 cents. The company anticipates continued growth in gross bookings and adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, though adjusted EPS guidance remains below consensus. Following the earnings release, analysts adjusted their price targets downward amid mixed financial signals.

Key Points

Uber’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenue reached $14.37 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase and above analyst expectations.
Adjusted earnings per share were 71 cents, missing the consensus forecast of 80 cents.
The company expects first-quarter 2026 gross bookings to grow 17%-21%, targeting $52.0-$53.5 billion, alongside adjusted EBITDA of $2.37-$2.47 billion.
Adjusted EPS guidance for Q1 2026 is between 65 to 72 cents, lower than the forecasted 75 cents by analysts.
Uber Technologies Inc. announced its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 on Wednesday, revealing a revenue performance that outpaced analyst projections, alongside earnings that fell short of expectations. The company recorded a 20% increase in revenue year-over-year, totaling $14.37 billion, slightly exceeding the consensus estimate of $14.32 billion.

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS), however, came in at 71 cents, missing the analyst consensus figure of 80 cents. This disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line performance highlights the complex dynamics Uber faces as it scales.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi commented on the quarter, emphasizing the company’s expanding user base and engagement metrics. "Uber accelerated into another record-breaking quarter, with more than 200 million monthly users completing over 40 million trips daily," he stated, noting this as the largest and most engaged consumer base in Uber’s history. Khosrowshahi expressed optimism entering 2026, citing rapidly growing topline metrics, strong cash flow generation, and a defined strategy aimed at becoming the largest facilitator of autonomous vehicle trips globally.

Looking ahead, Uber has projected fiscal first-quarter 2026 gross bookings in the range of $52.0 billion to $53.5 billion, representing a 17% to 21% growth from the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $2.37 billion and $2.47 billion. Adjusted EPS guidance for the quarter stands at 65 cents to 72 cents, which is below the analyst consensus estimate of 75 cents.

In reaction to this mixed set of financial signals, Uber shares experienced a decline of 0.7% in pre-market trading, settling at a price of $73.44.

Following the earnings report, several financial analysts updated their recommendations and price targets for Uber:
  • Mizuho analyst Lloyd Walmsley retained an Outperform rating on Uber. However, he revised the price target downward from $130 to $110, reflecting moderating growth expectations despite the company’s revenue beat.
  • Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt held a Neutral rating and reduced the price target from $78 to $75, signaling caution amid earnings misses and conservative forward guidance.
These adjustments underscore a tempered market outlook for Uber amid solid revenue performance but margin pressure and earnings misses.

The reported fourth-quarter results reinforce Uber’s significant presence in the consumer transportation market, supported by its record user base and daily trip volume. Nonetheless, the company’s earnings shortfall and cautious Q1 guidance indicate challenges in balancing growth with profitability. Investors and analysts are carefully monitoring Uber’s trajectory as it aims to leverage its operational scale and emerging autonomous vehicle capabilities to drive future expansion.

Overall, Uber’s latest earnings exhibit strength on revenue and user metrics paired with pressures on profitability. The combination of strong engagement with tempered guidance and EPS misses has led to downward revisions in price targets by key analysts, reflecting a nuanced view of the company’s near-term financial performance and growth prospects.
Risks
  • Earnings per share performance falling short of market expectations could pressure stock valuation.
  • Forward EPS guidance below consensus estimates signals potential challenges in profitability and cost management.
  • Analyst price target reductions suggest diminished investor confidence or concerns about growth sustainability.
  • Downward stock movement following earnings announcement indicates market sensitivity to earnings misses despite revenue growth.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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