January 27, 2026
Finance

Union Pacific Reports Fourth-Quarter Earnings Miss Amid Slight Revenue Decline But Notes Operational Gains

Despite falling short of earnings and revenue targets in Q4 2025, Union Pacific sees improvements in key efficiency metrics and safety performance

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Summary

Union Pacific Corporation posted fourth-quarter earnings that fell slightly short of Wall Street expectations, with revenue dipping 1% year-over-year. Operational data highlighted gains in freight velocity, terminal efficiency, and workforce productivity, alongside improved safety outcomes. The company maintains a positive outlook for 2026 earnings growth aligned with its multi-year targets.

Key Points

Union Pacific reported net income of $1.8 billion in Q4 2025 with adjusted EPS of $2.86, slightly below analyst expectations.
Operating revenue decreased by 1% to $6.09 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $6.12 billion.
Operational efficiency indicators such as freight car velocity, terminal dwell, and workforce productivity showed notable improvements.
Safety metrics improved with reductions in reportable personal injury and derailment rates.

Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP), a leading railroad transportation company, released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Tuesday, revealing a mixed performance as revenue declined slightly and earnings per share narrowly missed consensus estimates. The company reported net income of $1.8 billion, equating to $3.11 on a diluted per-share basis. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.86, just below the analyst consensus forecast of $2.87.

Operating revenue for the quarter totaled $6.09 billion, marking a 1% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year and underperforming the anticipated $6.12 billion. This revenue shortfall contrasts with some encouraging operational developments reported by the company during the quarter.


Operational Performance Highlights

The company's reported operating ratio (OR) stood at 60.5%, representing a deterioration of 180 basis points from prior levels. Excluding certain adjustments, the adjusted operating ratio was 60%, which also worsened by 190 basis points. Despite this, Union Pacific noted improvements in several key efficiency metrics:

  • Freight car velocity increased by 9%, reaching 239 daily miles per car.
  • Average terminal dwell time dropped 9%, now averaging 19.8 hours.
  • Workforce productivity rose by 3%, with 1,151 car miles per employee.
  • Locomotive productivity improved 4%, achieving 141 gross ton-miles (GTMs) per horsepower day.
  • The average train length grew by 3% to 9,729 feet, suggesting enhanced operational scale.

In terms of safety performance, both the reportable personal injury rate and the reportable derailment rate showed improvement, underlining the company’s focus on safe operations.


Segment Revenue Breakdown

Freight revenue, excluding revenues from fuel surcharges, advanced 3% overall. Segment-specific results were mixed:

  • Bulk segment: Revenue increased by 3%, buoyed by a significant 23% rise in Coal and renewables revenues. Conversely, Grain and grain products revenues declined 2%.
  • Industrial segment: This segment’s revenue edged up 1%, signaling steady demand.
  • Premium segment: Revenue decreased 6%, primarily driven by a 9% decline in Intermodal revenues.

Management Commentary and Outlook

Union Pacific’s CEO Jim Vena emphasized the company’s ongoing efforts to improve safety, service levels, and operational efficiency as it progresses through regulatory channels to establish the nation's first transcontinental railroad. The management team remains committed to these operational priorities to underpin future growth prospects.

Looking ahead, the company projects earnings per share growth for 2026 consistent with achieving a compound annual growth rate in the high single digits to low double digits over a three-year horizon ending in 2027. Union Pacific’s capital expenditure plan amounts to $3.3 billion, reflecting continued investment in infrastructure and capacity.


Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Union Pacific’s stock price experienced a modest gain, rising 1.13% to $233.49 as of Tuesday’s market close, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Risks
  • Operating ratio worsened by approximately 180-190 basis points, indicating higher cost pressures or lower efficiency.
  • Revenue in the Premium segment declined 6%, including a 9% drop in Intermodal revenue, suggesting potential demand softness in higher-margin sectors.
  • Regulatory considerations remain as Union Pacific navigates forming the nation's first transcontinental railroad, posing execution risks.
  • The slight shortfall in earnings and revenue relative to analyst estimates highlights ongoing competitive and market challenges.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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