January 21, 2026
Finance

United Airlines Surpasses Q4 Expectations and Sets 2026 Earnings Forecast

Strong Fourth-Quarter Performance and Capacity Growth Highlighted in Latest Financial Report

Summary

United Airlines Holdings reported robust fourth-quarter results exceeding analyst forecasts, with a 6.5% increase in capacity and record passenger numbers for 2025. The company also set adjusted EPS guidance for 2026, projecting continued strong performance despite challenges such as a government shutdown impacting earnings in the quarter.

Key Points

United Airlines reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $3.10, beating the $2.94 consensus estimate.
Fourth-quarter revenue reached $15.397 billion, slightly exceeding expectations.
Capacity grew 6.5% year-over-year, with a record 181 million passengers carried in 2025.
Government shutdown impacted Q4 pre-tax earnings by approximately $250 million, with free cash flow in 2026 expected to be similar to 2025 levels.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) saw its shares rise on Wednesday following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings report, which exceeded Wall Street projections. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.10, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.94. Additionally, revenue for the quarter reached $15.397 billion, slightly above the anticipated $15.396 billion.

The airline reported a 6.5% expansion in capacity compared to the same period last year, underscoring its operational scaling during the quarter. United achieved a significant milestone by transporting a record 181 million passengers throughout 2025 and operated the largest mainline flight schedule in its history during the quarter.

Revenue streams across several sectors showed positive momentum, with premium travel, loyalty programs, and Basic Economy fare categories all demonstrating year-over-year increases in revenue during the fourth quarter. From a cash flow perspective, United generated $8.4 billion in operating cash flow and $2.7 billion in free cash flow over the full year.

However, the company noted that the recent government shutdown had a detrimental effect on its fourth-quarter pre-tax earnings, reducing them by approximately $250 million. Looking ahead, United expects to sustain similar levels of free cash flow in 2026 as in the prior year.

For the upcoming first quarter, United Airlines has provided guidance of adjusted EPS in the range of $1.00 to $1.50, compared with the consensus forecast of $1.13. For the fiscal year 2026, the company projects adjusted EPS between $12.00 and $14.00, narrowly bracketing the analyst consensus of $13.13.

Technical Stock Insights

As of the latest trading session, United Airlines' stock price stood approximately 1.5% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), yet it remains 8.6% above its 100-day SMA. This positioning illustrates a degree of longer-term upward strength despite recent short-term softness. Over the trailing twelve months, shares declined by about 1.76%, though the current price is closer to the year’s high than its low, suggesting relative resilience within its trading range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures at 44.92, signaling a neutral condition where the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positioned below its signal line, indicating some bearish momentum. The juxtaposition of the neutral RSI and bearish MACD portrays a mixed technical momentum outlook for United Airlines.

Quantitative Ratings Overview

According to a recent scorecard evaluating United Airlines Holdings against market peers, the company showed notable strengths and moderate weaknesses:

  • Momentum: The airline attained a moderately positive momentum score of 58.1 out of 100, reflecting steady price movement strength.
  • Value: Scoring a strong 81.74, United is assessed as favorably valued relative to its industry counterparts.
  • Growth: An impressive score of 87.26 indicates robust growth prospects for the company moving forward.

The overall assessment highlights that despite modest momentum strength, United Airlines demonstrates substantial growth potential coupled with attractive valuation metrics, positioning the stock favorably for possible future performance.

On the trading floor, shares of United Airlines increased by 2.84% to reach $111.65 during recent market activity.

Summary

United Airlines’ fourth-quarter financial results revealed solid operational and financial execution, surpassing profit and revenue estimates while expanding capacity and passenger volume. Though the government shutdown posed a meaningful profit headwind, the airline maintained strong cash flows. Guidance for 2026 points to continued earnings strength, underpinned by broad revenue gains across premium, loyalty, and economy segments. Technically, the stock shows signs of longer-term strength amid mixed momentum indicators. Valuation and growth scores further support a positive investment thesis as the company navigates a competitive and evolving airline industry landscape.

Risks
  • The government shutdown resulted in a significant profit impact for the fourth quarter, illustrating exposure to external political events.
  • Guidance for Q1 2026 EPS is below the consensus estimate, indicating potential near-term earnings variability.
  • Bearish momentum signals in technical indicators suggest some pressure on the stock price despite longer-term strength.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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UAL - neutral
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