As the United States moves toward the mid-2020s, economic forecasts suggest a notable surge in corporate earnings, primarily attributed to a combination of tax reforms and direct financial stimuli aimed at renewing domestic manufacturing. Jason Trennert, CEO of Strategas Research Partners, highlighted in his recent discussion on the Real Eisman Playbook that a major legislative initiative, dubbed by its proponents as the 'one big beautiful bill,' is expected to be a significant catalyst fostering economic resilience and expansion in 2026.
This legislative package encompasses an injection of roughly $150 billion into the economy through tax refunds and immediate stimulus distribution. While consumer spending will naturally benefit from this influx, a defining element of the legislation centers on supply-side provisions designed explicitly to revamp the industrial fabric of the country.
A pivotal aspect of this policy change grants companies the ability to immediately expense the full cost of constructing new manufacturing plants within the United States, in stark contrast to the traditional method of depreciating such expenditures over a span of ten years. Trennert emphasized that this accelerated depreciation provision is poised to incentivize corporate leaders to prioritize capital investment and engineering projects, effectively shifting focus away from financial strategies such as share repurchases.
Supporting the optimistic earnings growth outlook of 14% to 15% in 2026, Trennert also referenced a unique convergence of cultural and economic influences expected to stimulate domestic activity. Significant national celebrations like the 250th anniversary of the United States and hosting commitments such as the World Cup are anticipated to act as economic tailwinds during this period.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, projections estimate real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 3%, complemented by an inflation rate around 2.5%. The combined nominal GDP growth of approximately 5.5% contributes to what Trennert describes as a 'sanguine' outlook, suggesting a minimal likelihood of recession in the near term. Nevertheless, caution remains among analysts who will closely monitor whether ongoing capital investments maintain pace with inflationary developments as the calendar progresses into 2027.
This anticipated expansion represents a marked shift in market dynamics compared to recent years dominated by technology sector rallies. With populism continuing to influence the political landscape, investors appear to be redirecting attention toward sectors anchored in tangible assets like commodities, precious metals, and agricultural land. The Federal Reserve’s substantial balance sheet remains an underlying support for stock valuations; however, the core driver of the 2026 market performance is expected to reside in physical infrastructure development.
The implication of this transition is that investors may find their most compelling opportunities within industries contributing to the construction and modernization of the nation's tangible assets, as opposed to purely technology-focused growth sectors.
Examining key benchmark indices year-to-date reinforces this narrative. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial averages have recorded gains of 0.87% and 1.77%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite, with a heavy technology weighting, showed marginal appreciation of 0.08%. On the trading day referenced, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes respectively, experienced modest premarket advances. SPY increased by 0.22% to $691.04, while QQQ edged up by 0.086% to $617.05.
Overall, the landscape poised for 2026 suggests a period of sustained growth anchored by renewed manufacturing vitality, impactful fiscal policies, and emergent shifts in investor preferences toward hard asset sectors.