As the U.S. markets opened trading for 2026, stock futures showed upward movement on Friday, recovering from the absence of the expected Santa Claus rally observed during the shortened trading week. Futures tied to key benchmark indices experienced gains, signaling optimism among investors at the start of the year.
The Santa Claus trading period, which traditionally commences on December 24, failed to deliver anticipated positive momentum this year. The S&P 500 index declined for its fourth consecutive session during this period, despite ultimately posting gains for the full year of 2025.
In the fixed income market, the 10-year Treasury bond yield stood at 4.15%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was reported at 3.46%. Additionally, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is an 85.1% market-implied probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates unchanged when it next meets in January.
| Index | Futures Change (%) |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones | +0.37 |
| S&P 500 | +0.62 |
| Nasdaq 100 | +1.08 |
| Russell 2000 | +0.75 |
Examining exchange-traded funds that track major indices, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) appreciated by 0.69%, trading at $686.61 in premarket hours. Meanwhile, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which follows the Nasdaq 100 index, rose 1.12% to $621.18.
Stocks in Focus
Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) witnessed a significant premarket increase of 12.20%. The surge followed Baidu's announcement of its plan to spin off and separately list the H shares of Kunlunxin (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. While the company shows a stronger price trend across short, medium, and long-term periods, its quality ranking remains weak according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings.
Rubico Inc. (NASDAQ:RUBI) surged 16.82% following the announcement of entering a purchase agreement to acquire a vessel-owning company from Top Ships. This target company is engaged in a shipbuilding contract for a newbuilding mega yacht. Rubico displays a strong short-term price trend but weak medium and long-term trends.
Outlook Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:OTLK) tumbled steeply by 56.52% after disclosing that the FDA issued a complete response letter regarding its resubmitted biologics license application for ONS-5010/LYTENAVA. This letter indicates the agency cannot approve the application in its current form for treating wet age-related macular degeneration. Outlook Therapeutics shows weaker price trends across short, medium, and long-term horizons.
Intelligent Bio Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:INBS) declined by 23.40% subsequent to an announcement of a $10 million private placement priced at market rates under Nasdaq rules. The stock maintains weak price trends in medium and long terms but retains a strong short-term price trend.
ChowChow Cloud International HLDG Ltd. (NYSE:CHOW) advanced dramatically by 80.89%, driven by first-half 2025 results that showed an 81.3% year-over-year increase in revenue to $22.8 million and an 80% rise in net income to $1.6 million. Despite this, the stock is considered to have weaker price trends across all time frames.
Sector and Market Performance
Reflecting on the final full trading day of the previous year, real estate, industrials, and materials sectors experienced the most significant losses as all S&P 500 sectors ended negative. Major indices closed lower: the Dow Jones fell over 300 points, the S&P 500 recorded a fourth consecutive decline, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.76% to 23,241.99.
| Index | Performance (%) | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.76 | 23,241.99 |
| S&P 500 | -0.74 | 6,845.50 |
| Dow Jones | -0.63 | 48,063.29 |
| Russell 2000 | -0.75 | 2,481.91 |
Analyst Perspectives
Following a record-setting year for the S&P 500 in 2025 marked by multiple all-time highs, analysts now anticipate a moderation in market growth for 2026. Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, projects a shift toward modest single-digit gains of 3% to 5%, with the S&P 500 likely trading around the 7,250 level.
Woods suggests that while bulls will maintain control, the rapid, expansive gains observed last year will give way to more measured advances. "I think the bull run continues, but the stampede is not going to be there," he noted.
He also highlighted challenges ahead, citing market uncertainties including the impacts of tariffs, upcoming midterm elections, and potential changes at the Federal Reserve. Notably, the Fed's independence may come under strain following Jerome Powell's tenure, with Woods anticipating internal disagreements within the new Fed leadership. He foresees a tense dynamic where "Fed policy meets Washington rhetoric," cautioning that aggressive demands for rate cuts from political actors are unlikely to be met, leading to a volatile market environment.
Commodities and Global Market Snapshot
In commodities, crude oil futures experienced a modest decline of 0.40% during early New York trading, holding near $57.19 per barrel. Gold spot prices increased by 1.75%, trading around $4,386.32 per ounce, remaining below its recent peak of $4,550.11. The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.07% to 98.3890. Bitcoin recovered 1.83% to $89,330.12 per coin.
In Asia, equity markets concluded the day mostly higher, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, and India's Nifty 50 posting gains. In contrast, China's CSI 300 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed lower. European markets followed the positive trajectory in early trading sessions.
Outlook
The start of 2026 shows an upbeat trend among futures across U.S. benchmarks, with investor attention focused on corporate developments alongside broader economic uncertainty and policy considerations. The market’s trajectory appears set for moderate growth with increased volatility, influenced by regulatory outcomes and geopolitical factors.