Vertiv Holdings Co., a prominent player in the AI infrastructure sector providing crucial power and cooling solutions for data centers, is highly anticipated to be added to the S&P 500 index during the first quarter of 2026, based on data derived from prediction markets.
The Ohio-headquartered firm currently holds a 71% probability according to Polymarket’s betting odds for becoming part of the prestigious S&P 500, indicating stronger market confidence compared to other contenders. Companies like fintech SoFi Technologies Inc., Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc., Pure Storage Inc., and Ciena Corp., see considerably lower chances of inclusion, with respective odds at 37%, 30%, 22%, and 27%.
The S&P 500 index, which tracks 500 leading publicly traded U.S. companies listed across NYSE, Nasdaq, and CBOE, has firm eligibility requirements. For a company to qualify, it must maintain a minimum market capitalization of $22.7 billion by July 1, 2025. Additionally, trading volume standards mandate the company must demonstrate robust liquidity — specifically, a minimum average monthly trading volume of 250,000 shares over six consecutive months prior to evaluation. Furthermore, within a year the aggregate trading volume should be at least 75% of the firm’s market value. These criteria ensure shares possess enough liquidity to accommodate large institutional transactions without triggering significant price disruptions.
Inclusion in the S&P 500 typically stimulates demand for a company’s stock because index funds tracking the S&P 500 must purchase shares of new entrants. This dynamic frequently causes a temporary surge known as the “inclusion bounce.”
Vertiv’s ascent has been remarkable, with its stock appreciating by more than 1,047% in just under three years, propelled by the burgeoning AI sector's momentum. Currently, its market capitalization approaches $62 billion, comfortably surpassing the eligibility threshold for S&P 500 inclusion.
Financially, Vertiv’s performance aligns with its stock market success. In its most recent third-quarter financial results, the company posted revenues of $2.68 billion, representing an impressive 29% year-over-year increase. Profitability also improved, with earnings per share of $1.24 compared to $0.76 in the comparable prior-year period.
Looking ahead, Vertiv has revised its full-year sales outlook upwards to a range of $10.16 billion to $10.24 billion, an increase from the prior forecast of $9.93 billion to $10.08 billion. This optimistic forecast is underpinned by a strong backlog valued at $9.5 billion, reflecting a 30% year-over-year gain, signaling sustained demand for the company’s offerings.
Market analysts have responded to these developments with increased enthusiasm. Citigroup recently lifted its price target on Vertiv’s stock to $220 per share, implying a potential upside of approximately 35.7% from recent trading levels. Despite a modest dip of 1.38% to close at $162.01 on Wednesday, the stock rebounded with a 3.68% gain overnight, indicating ongoing investor interest.
Vertiv enjoys strong placements across multiple stock metrics. According to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, the shares score highly in momentum, growth, and quality categories, further supported by an encouraging medium- and long-term price trend.
Collectively, these factors provide a substantive rationale for the prediction markets’ view that Vertiv is the most likely candidate among peers to be added to the S&P 500 in the early part of 2026.