Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) are scheduled to report their earnings on January 29, reflecting on the performance of the fourth quarter. According to Tien-tsin Huang, a senior analyst at JPMorgan, current data on consumer spending show only a minor slowdown as 2024 concludes. This slight deceleration comes in the context of a challenging year-over-year comparison, yet it underscores a persistent robustness in the U.S. consumer sector.
In recent developments influencing market sentiment, former President Donald Trump publicly advocated for support of the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) via social media channels. Huang notes that while headlines surrounding the CCCA have introduced an element of cautiousness among investors, any prospective effects on Visa and Mastercard’s operations appear manageable over the long term.
The analyst assesses that adoption of the CCCA is unlikely, primarily because the act does not presently offer evident tangible benefits to either consumers or merchants when weighed against the additional operational complexities it would impose. Should the legislation be enacted, Huang anticipates that both Visa and Mastercard would adapt to the related changes with only moderate economic impact distributed over the longer term.
In line with his analysis, Huang maintains a fundamentally positive outlook towards the payments networks sector, slightly favoring Visa while holding an affirmative stance on Mastercard as well.
Mastercard Fourth-Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Projections
Huang projects Mastercard’s fourth-quarter revenue to reach approximately $8.72 billion, compared with the consensus analyst expectation of $8.78 billion. For earnings per share, he estimates $4.20, slightly below the street’s forecast of $4.25. For the full fiscal year 2025, anticipated revenue stands at $32.71 billion, just under the consensus of $32.78 billion, with EPS forecasted at $16.45, aligning closely with market expectations.
These estimations reflect approximately a 1% variance below consensus for both revenue and EPS, a discrepancy Huang attributes chiefly to intra-quarter foreign exchange rate adjustments. Regarding transaction volume in the U.S., estimates fall marginally short of street expectations for the fourth quarter, mirroring an estimated 240 basis points deceleration attributable to the partial conversion of Capital One accounts. Despite this, underlying consumer spending trends appear generally stable.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Huang anticipates that Mastercard will likely provide guidance targeting the upper bound of mid-single-digit growth for foreign exchange-neutral and organic revenue, projecting around 12% growth.
Visa's Revenue and Earnings Outlook for Upcoming Periods
For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Huang forecasts Visa’s net revenues at approximately $10.67 billion, virtually on par with the consensus of $10.68 billion. The EPS estimate sits at $3.12 against the street’s $3.13. For the overall fiscal year 2026, predicted revenues are $44.76 billion, slightly exceeding the consensus of $44.45 billion, with EPS projected at $12.87, marginally above the market’s $12.80 projection.
These projections align closely with street estimates for the first quarter, while the fiscal 2026 outlook surpasses consensus by around one percentage point, due in part to favorable foreign exchange effects that contribute an estimated 50 basis points above previous assumptions.
Huang expects Visa’s fundamentals to remain supportive in the near term, citing volume acceleration observed in early January and anticipated growth in the latter half of the year, partially driven by pricing adjustments related to tokenization services. Combined with attractive valuation metrics relative to the broader market and Visa’s historical performance, the analyst views the investment risk-reward profile as favorable heading into the quarter and continuing through 2026.
Market Reaction
At the time of publication on Friday, Mastercard's stock was trading down 1.38% at $525.50, while Visa's shares experienced a slight increase of 0.17%. Stock movements reflect investor assessments amid the upcoming earnings announcements and related forecasts.