Waste Management Inc (NYSE: WM) experienced a decline in its stock price on Thursday after announcing fourth-quarter financial results that fell slightly short of market expectations. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.93, just under the consensus estimate of $1.94. Nevertheless, this represents a 13.5% increase compared to the $1.70 per share earned in the same quarter one year prior.
Revenue for the quarter reached $6.31 billion, which was marginally below the anticipated $6.39 billion projected by analysts, yet still marked a healthy increase of over 7% against the previous year’s figure of $5.89 billion. For the full year 2026, Waste Management provided guidance expecting revenue in the range of $26.43 billion to $26.63 billion, slightly trailing the Street’s estimate of $26.66 billion.
Despite the minor shortfall in headline numbers, the company showcased robust operational momentum over 2025. Waste Management’s total operating EBITDA climbed by 13.3%, while adjusted margins surpassed the 30% threshold for the first time in its history. The Legacy Business segment experienced an 8% growth in EBITDA, further supported by a 90-basis-point margin expansion during the period.
CEO Jim Fish characterized 2025 as a year marked by disciplined operational execution, highlighting the attainment of record efficiency in operating expenses relative to revenue. Looking ahead, the company forecasted a nearly 30% increase in free cash flow for 2026, attributing this growth to investments across its recycling initiatives, renewable energy projects, fleet modernization, and enhancements to its medical waste network. Waste Management also announced plans to return approximately $3.5 billion to shareholders next year via dividends and share repurchases.
Recent analyst evaluations exhibit a diversity of views on Waste Management’s near-term outlook. Wells Fargo held an “Overweight” rating, raising its price target from $238.00 to $246.00 on January 23. In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded the stock to “Sector Perform” from “Sector Outperform” and adjusted its price target downward from $254.00 to $250.00 on January 21. Barclays maintained an “Overweight” rating with a slight target decrease from $266.00 to $265.00 as of January 20.
Additionally, Citigroup continued to rate Waste Management as a “Buy” but lowered the target price from $270.00 to $263.00 on January 16, while UBS upgraded the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy” on January 9, significantly boosting the price target from $225.00 to $260.00. The spectrum of rating changes and target revisions underscores varied analyst perspectives regarding the company’s performance prospects.
At the time of this report, Waste Management’s shares were trading down approximately 4.05%, priced at $222.22 according to Benzinga Pro data. This decline followed the company’s modest earnings and revenue misses, despite overall-positive operational indicators.
Waste Management’s latest financial disclosures illustrate a scenario where growth and efficiency gains coexist with slight earnings and revenue misses relative to Wall Street estimates. The company’s guidance for continued free cash flow expansion and shareholder returns reflects confidence in its strategic investments and operational discipline.
However, market reaction and divergent analyst ratings imply ongoing debate concerning the sustainability of these trends. Investors will likely monitor upcoming quarters closely to gauge whether the company can meet or exceed expectations amid evolving market conditions.