December 28, 2025
Finance

Why Taiwan Semiconductor Could Be the AI Chip Stock to Watch Through 2026

Four Prominent Billionaire Investors Align on a Shared Bet Outside Nvidia

Summary

Examining the holdings of leading investment figures reveals a consensus around Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) as a key player poised for growth amid expanding AI applications. While Nvidia has traditionally dominated the AI chip discussion, TSMC’s unique position as a supplier to multiple competitors secures its role in the sector’s future. With substantial data center investments anticipated by 2030, informed investors are considering TSMC a promising opportunity heading into 2026 and beyond.

Key Points

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a shared investment among several prominent billionaire hedge fund managers, underlining its significance in the AI hardware supply chain.
TSMC serves as a primary chip manufacturer for multiple leading competitors in the AI chip market, including Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, positioning it neutrally and advantageously.
Forecasts indicate a major expansion in global data center capital expenditures through 2030, which is expected to fuel sustained demand for TSMC’s chip manufacturing capabilities.
TSMC's current valuation is moderate compared to industry peers, making it an attractive stock based on earnings projections for 2026 and the expected growth trajectory in AI-related infrastructure.

Investors often look to the stock picks of billionaire hedge fund managers to identify potential opportunities. While the delayed nature of disclosure filings means that trades may be months old by the time they are public, patterns in what these influential managers hold can provide valuable insights about certain companies with strong growth prospects.

Under U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations, asset managers overseeing portfolios exceeding $100 million are required to submit their holdings at quarter end, which become publicly accessible 45 days later through the Form 13F filings. This lag, while limiting real-time replication, allows observers to assess which stocks these top investors favor consistently rather than reactively.

Among numerous stocks tracked, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) emerges as a significant common holding. This semiconductor giant features prominently in the portfolios of several well-known billionaires, highlighting its perceived importance in the advancing artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem.

The billionaires with meaningful stakes in TSMC include:

  • Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management, whose shares represent approximately 4% of his fund’s portfolio.
  • Steve Mandel at Lone Pine Capital, holding about 6.2% of his portfolio in the company.
  • David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, with TSMC composing close to 4% of his assets under management.
  • Daniel Loeb at Third Point, allocating roughly 3.7% of his fund to this stock.

The collective confidence from these market veterans suggests robust optimism regarding TSMC’s future role in the technology sector. The rationale centers on TSMC’s central position within the AI hardware supply chain.

Over the past years, the conversation about which chips lead AI innovation has largely focused on Nvidia and its market-leading graphics processing units (GPUs). However, the landscape is becoming more competitive, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom introducing custom AI accelerators, complicating a clear dominance narrative.

Despite these variations, a key commonality links these chip manufacturers: the majority of their silicon comes from TSMC. This role as the principal foundry for multiple players places TSMC in a uniquely advantageous and neutral position, supplying rivals and reducing exposure to any single company’s market risks.

This strategic supplier status aligns with the ongoing extensive buildout of data centers dedicated to generative AI technologies. As such infrastructure investments accelerate, demand for high-performance chips is expected to surge, directly benefiting TSMC.

Current data reinforces TSMC’s prominent status, with the company boasting a market capitalization around $1.6 trillion and maintaining a gross margin near 58%. Its stock price recently hovered near $303, reflecting steady investor confidence.

Looking forward, Nvidia has projected that global capital expenditures for data centers will dramatically increase, totaling between $3 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030, up substantially from $600 billion projected for 2025. AMD’s estimates forecast computing as a $1 trillion market opportunity by the end of the decade.

This anticipated surge in infrastructure spending and computing power demand dovetails well with TSMC’s business model, reinforcing the bullish sentiment held by the billionaire investors cited.

Evaluating TSMC’s current valuation, the company trades at approximately 23 times estimated earnings for 2026, which is reasonably priced relative to industry peers. Given its pivotal supply chain role and strong growth potential extending through and beyond 2026, TSMC presents a compelling case among semiconductor investment options.

While the latest ownership data for these large investors dates from the end of September, TSMC’s share price has remained relatively stable since, increasing marginally by about 3%. This price stability implies enduring confidence and likely retention of holdings by these key stakeholders.

In conclusion, TSMC’s strategically central function in supplying chips to various leading AI hardware producers, along with robust long-term demand forecasts for AI-related capital expenditures, underscores its status as a stock worth watching. The alignment of multiple billionaire portfolios in favor of TSMC further highlights the stock’s perceived potential. Investors contemplating significant AI sector exposure may find merit in considering TSMC as a core holding in their portfolio, anticipating substantial gains around 2026 and beyond as AI adoption accelerates.

Risks
  • Disclosure delays mean that the exact current holdings of billionaire funds in TSMC may have changed since the last reporting date, impacting the relevance of ownership trends.
  • The competitive landscape for AI chips is evolving, with multiple emerging players challenging the market, which could affect demand distribution for TSMC’s foundry services.
  • TSMC’s stock price has been relatively flat recently, suggesting a degree of market uncertainty or balance between bullish and bearish sentiment despite optimistic long-term forecasts.
  • Geopolitical and supply chain risks inherent in semiconductor manufacturing, especially centered in Taiwan, could potentially affect TSMC’s operations and stock performance, although these risks are not discussed in detail here.
Disclosure
All investment positions referenced relate to public filings dated September 30; no updates or changes post that date are indicated in this analysis.
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