December 28, 2025
Finance

Alphabet Positioned to Surpass Nvidia in AI Market Growth by 2026

Analysis suggests Alphabet's diverse AI strategies may deliver stronger returns over the next year

Loading...
Loading quote...

Summary

While Nvidia has experienced extraordinary gains fueled by AI infrastructure demand, Alphabet's advancements in AI hardware, software, and applications signal potential for superior performance in 2026. Alphabet's broad AI initiatives, including its cloud division's growth, TPU hardware, cutting-edge language models, and integration across its services, provide a multifaceted foundation for sustained expansion and profitability.

Key Points

Nvidia's stock has surged more than 1,000% since the AI boom initiated by ChatGPT, driven by demand for GPUs in AI training.
Alphabet's Google Cloud revenue grew 34% last quarter with a 24% operating margin, supported by a $155 billion backlog reflecting 46% annual growth.
Alphabet's custom AI chips (TPUs) and advanced language models (Gemini 3.0) are gaining traction with industry players like Anthropic, Meta, and Apple, fueling prospects for 2026 growth.

Since the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) adoption triggered by the release of ChatGPT, Nvidia has emerged as one of the standout performers in this bullish market phase. The company's shares have soared by over 1,000%, driven predominantly by heightened investment in AI infrastructure where Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) have become the industry standard for training advanced language models.

Nvidia, currently approaching the status of the globe's largest company with an approximate market capitalization of $4.5 trillion, still holds strong growth expectations from analysts. The prevailing median price targets suggest a potential 30% increase in Nvidia's stock price, which would elevate the company's valuation to an estimated $6 trillion. However, corporate developments within Alphabet indicate a competitive challenge that could see it outperform Nvidia in 2026.

Growing Momentum in Alphabet's AI Portfolio

Throughout 2025, Alphabet has made marked progress in its AI capabilities, translating this into robust financial metrics poised to continue into the next year. Specifically, Google Cloud—a crucial segment within Alphabet's operations—demonstrated an accelerated revenue growth rate of 34% in the last quarter accompanied by an expansion of operating margins up to 24%. This trend is supported by a considerable backlog reported at $155 billion by the end of the third quarter, reflecting a 46% year-over-year increase.

A notable driver behind this growth is the rising demand for Alphabet's custom-designed Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). These AI acceleration chips provide a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia's GPUs for both AI training and inference tasks. Industry adoption of TPUs appears on the rise, with Anthropic scheduled to deploy these units for specific workloads in 2026 and reports indicating ongoing talks with Meta Platforms for potential integration, including adaptation of the popular AI framework PyTorch for TPU compatibility. This competitive hardware landscape, along with further AI accelerators emerging in the market, should catalyze Google Cloud's expansion and margin improvements as it progresses.

Advancements in Language Models Fuel Alphabet's AI Leadership

Alphabet's contributions to large language model (LLM) development remain highly competitive. The company's release of Gemini 3.0 in November outperformed contemporaneous models from Anthropic and OpenAI on multiple benchmark assessments. This launch prompted an exceptional response within the industry, with OpenAI's CEO acknowledging a 'code red' situation due to Gemini 3.0's capabilities surpassing those of GPT 5.1.

Gemini's performance has also significantly influenced consumer adoption, evidenced by the application’s monthly active user base reaching 650 million as of November. Looking forward, Apple reportedly plans to incorporate Gemini into new AI-enhanced Siri functionalities starting in spring, entailing a $1 billion annual licensing agreement with Alphabet. Since Apple intends to operate the model on its own infrastructure, this arrangement should contribute nearly fully to Alphabet’s profitability.

Integrating AI for Core Business Enhancement

Beyond innovation for external clients, Alphabet benefits strategically from applying its AI developments internally. The integration of LLM technologies and machine learning algorithms strengthens its foundational services such as Google Search and YouTube, both of which remain substantial revenue generators.

Features leveraging AI, including AI Overviews and AI Mode, have diversified user search behavior, increasing query types and volume. Remarkably, monetization rates for these AI-fueled searches approximate those of traditional queries, culminating in net revenue gains. Ongoing efforts to reduce the cost of producing AI Overviews have improved profitability, contributing to Google Search revenue growth of 15% in the third quarter.

YouTube also exhibited a 15% revenue increase in the latest quarter, supported by AI enhancements that facilitate video production and enrich viewer interactions, such as video editing tools, thumbnail generation, and identification of shoppable products within content.

Progress in Emerging Ventures: Waymo

Alphabet's self-driving vehicle initiative, Waymo, under the Other Bets segment, has shown substantial operational scale-up. The robotaxi service completed 14 million trips in 2025, more than tripling the prior year’s volume. The company aims to reach a milestone of 1 million rides weekly by the close of 2026, expanding its operations into 20 new metropolitan areas. As this segment grows, it could become a meaningful contributor to Alphabet's overall revenue.

Valuation and Comparative Outlook

With its broad AI engagement across hardware, software, and services, Alphabet represents a diversified growth entity currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple below 30. In contrast, Nvidia is valued at a premium exceeding 40 times forward earnings.

Alphabet's anticipated trajectory includes ongoing earnings acceleration driven by its scalable cloud infrastructure and expanding operating margins. The company's substantial cash generation capacity affords it the flexibility to enhance share repurchase activities, which can further boost earnings per share. These factors collectively suggest that Alphabet's valuation may offer greater investment value relative to Nvidia’s high expectations.

Conversely, Nvidia could face challenges in extending its rapid gains into 2026 as competition from Google’s TPUs, evolving GPUs, and other emerging AI accelerators intensifies, potentially affecting its dominant market position. Given these dynamics, Alphabet appears positioned to deliver superior stock performance in the forthcoming year.

Risks
  • Nvidia faces increasing competition from Google's TPUs and other AI accelerators, which could erode its GPU market share.
  • High valuation of Nvidia stock implies that it must meet elevated expectations, making future price appreciation more challenging.
  • Implementation and commercial success of AI initiatives by Alphabet, such as licensing agreements and Waymo's expansion, involve inherent execution uncertainties.
Disclosure
This analysis does not constitute investment advice. Investors should consider their own financial situation before making investment decisions.
Search Articles
Category
Finance

Financial News

Ticker Sentiment
GOOG - positive GOOGL - positive NVDA - neutral
Related Articles
Nasdaq Introduces Private Capital Indexes Amid Mixed Market Movements

Nasdaq, Inc. reported a stock decline on Tuesday concurrent with the launch of its Private Capital I...

Zillow Faces Stock Decline Following Quarterly Earnings That Marginally Beat Revenue Expectations

Zillow Group Inc recent quarterly results reflect steady revenue growth surpassing sector averages b...

Robinhood Reports Q4 Revenue Peak and Expands Market Contracts to 8.5 Billion

Robinhood Markets Inc. delivered a notable fourth-quarter performance with record revenue of $1.28 b...

Figma Shares Climb as Analysts Predict Software Sector Recovery

Figma Inc's stock experienced a notable uptick amid a broader rally in software equities. Analysts a...

American Express Expands NBA Partnership, Driving Stock Momentum

American Express (NYSE:AXP) shares advanced as the company renewed and broadened its partnership wit...

SAP Collaborates with Cohere to Deliver Global Sovereign AI Solutions Starting in Canada

SAP SE is enhancing its collaboration with Cohere to deploy sovereign AI solutions worldwide, initia...