China’s trade surplus reached an unprecedented nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, according to data released by the government on Wednesday. This milestone reflects the country's ability to sustain export growth worldwide, compensating for diminished sales to the United States following intensified tariffs during the Trump administration.
Customs figures indicate China's exports for the year climbed by 5.5%, totaling $3.77 trillion. This uptick was driven by Chinese manufacturers, including automakers, expanding their reach into diverse international markets. Meanwhile, imports stagnated, amounting to $2.58 trillion. The trade surplus markedly increased from $992 billion recorded the previous year.
December alone saw exports rise 6.6% year-over-year in dollar terms, surpassing economists’ projections and outperforming November’s 5.9% gain. Imports grew 5.7% in December year-over-year, accelerating significantly from the 1.9% increase in November.
November marked the first month China's trade surplus eclipsed $1 trillion, reaching $1.08 trillion during the initial 11 months of 2025.
Forecasters anticipate that exports will remain a key driver of economic growth for China in 2026 despite ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical tensions. Jacqueline Rong, BNP Paribas’s chief China economist, noted, "We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026."
After a steep decline in exports to the United States—down 20% for the full year—China compensated with increased shipments to other regions such as South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe. Exports surged 26% to Africa, 13% to Southeast Asia, 8% to the European Union, and 7% to Latin America during 2025.
Electronics and electrical equipment topped the export categories, growing 8.4% year-on-year. This gain was supported by strong global demand for semiconductor chips and related components. Auto exports also performed robustly, rising 21% to over 7 million vehicles, largely propelled by electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, as reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
In addition to technology and automotive sectors, China expanded shipments of grain and fertilizer, while exports of labor-intensive goods such as furniture and footwear declined.
China’s resilient export performance contributed to economic growth close to the official target of approximately 5% annually. This robust external trade performance has raised concerns in some countries over the impact of affordable Chinese imports on domestic industries.
Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration, described the trade outlook for 2026 as "severe and complex" but affirmed that China’s "foreign trade fundamentals remain solid."
The International Monetary Fund recently urged China to address economic imbalances by reducing its export dependence and encouraging domestic consumption and investment growth. China's domestic market remains constrained by a prolonged real estate market downturn stemming from regulatory crackdowns on excessive borrowing, which has dampened consumer confidence.
Though government policies have prioritized stimulating spending by consumers and businesses—including trade-in incentives for purchasing energy-efficient home appliances and vehicles—their impact has been limited. Rong of BNP Paribas observed, "We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid. In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year—in particular the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods." Domestic auto sales increased 6% in 2025 but saw declines toward year-end, coinciding with the scaling back or termination of subsidies in some regions.
Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, projects export growth of approximately 3% in 2026, reflecting a slowdown from the 5.5% rise in 2025. Given the modest import growth, China's trade surplus is expected to remain above $1 trillion this year.