As the NFL gears up for its conference championship matchups, two of the league's top seeds square off in pivotal contests that will determine the Super Bowl participants. Sunday will see the Denver Broncos, holding a 15-3 record, hosting the New England Patriots who hold a 16-3 record, in the AFC title game. This event recalls the era of Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady, who last met in the playoffs a decade ago. Currently, the Broncos will be guided by backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham for their first start of the season, while the Patriots’ offense is led by second-year player Drake Maye, who has shown strong performances this postseason.
Following the AFC game, the NFC championship showcases a rivalry between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, both from the NFC West division. The Rams, led by All-Pro quarterback Matthew Stafford, visit the Seahawks led by quarterback Sam Darnold. This marks their third encounter this season, intensifying the competition between the divisional foes.
AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos
The Patriots enter the AFC title game as road favorites by 5.5 points, a status influenced by the Broncos’ recent loss of starting quarterback Bo Nix due to an ankle injury during their overtime victory over Buffalo in the divisional round. Jarrett Stidham, who originally was drafted by the Patriots in 2019 as a backup to Tom Brady, steps in making only his fifth career start and his first pass attempt since 2023.
In contrasting conditions of rain and snow last week, Maye delivered three touchdown passes while New England’s defense notably intercepted four passes, including one returned for a touchdown in a 28-16 playoff victory over Houston. Despite fumbling twice under difficult weather circumstances, Maye’s prospects remain promising as the Patriots reach their 16th conference championship game – their first since an unprecedented eight consecutive appearances between 2011 and 2018 under Brady and coach Bill Belichick.
New England is chasing a franchise milestone of 12 Super Bowl appearances and a seventh Lombardi Trophy. Coach Mike Vrabel, bringing with him three championship rings from his playing days with the Patriots in the 2000s, directs a team that boasts the league's third-ranked total offense. Key contributors include Maye, running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte.
The Broncos, operating with the No. 1 seed, have not reached this juncture since their 2015 playoff run with Peyton Manning and a formidable defensive unit that defeated the Patriots on their way to a Super Bowl victory over Carolina. Denver holds an 8-2 record in AFC title games. Their defense, spearheaded by All-Pro defensive lineman Zach Allen, pass rusher Nik Bonitto, and cornerback Patrick Surtain II, ranks second in the NFL for yards allowed and third in points surrendered, averaging just 18.3 points against per game. The Patriots’ defense trails closely, allowing 18.8 points per game.
With Stidham unexpectedly thrust into the starting role, Broncos coach Sean Payton faces the task of adjusting the game plan significantly. Against the spread, the Patriots have a stronger record at 13-5-1 compared to Denver's 8-9-1. The prediction for this tightly contested game leans toward a New England victory by a narrow margin, with an anticipated final score of 20-16 in favor of the Patriots.
NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks
The Rams, entering with a 14-5 record, hope to secure their third consecutive road win following their wild-card victory over Carolina and an overtime win against Chicago. Led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay, who together guided the team to a Super Bowl championship four years prior, this will mark the Rams' 12th NFC championship appearance.
Seattle holds the top seed with a 15-3 record and earned a dominant 41-6 victory over the San Francisco 49ers to advance to their fifth conference title game and their first in 11 years. Quarterback Sam Darnold has found success elusive against the Rams in recent encounters. In a wild-card win last season, Los Angeles pressured him heavily, recording nine sacks and forcing an interception. During their midseason meeting in Week 11, Darnold was intercepted four times in a 21-19 loss. Despite a resilient performance where Seattle staged a comeback to win in overtime, Darnold faced another difficult outing on December 18, including two interceptions and four sacks, though the Seahawks rallied to clinch a 38-37 victory.
The Rams’ defense has improved, limiting opponents to 17 points per game in their recent contest against Chicago and holding dynamic rookie Caleb Williams to just 17 points. Offensively, they rank first in both yards and scoring with 30.5 points per game, powered by Stafford and standouts such as All-Pro receiver Puka Nacua and wideout Davante Adams. Seattle ranks third in scoring with 28.4 points per game, while their defense, featuring talents like defensive tackle Leonard Williams, linebacker Ernest Jones IV, and cornerback Devon Witherspoon, has the league's stingiest points allowed at 17.2 per game.
Against the spread, the Rams hold a 12-7 record while Seattle stands at 13-5. The anticipated outcome is a close contest with the Rams narrowly edging the Seahawks, projected 27-26 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Pro Picks Summary
The past week’s selections yielded a 3-1 straight-up record but struggled against the spread at 1-3, bringing overall straight-up picks to 192-89-1 and 148-126-8 against the spread historically. In prime-time matchups, record stands at 36-25-1 straight up and 28-34 against the spread.
The analysis highlights the unpredictability of playoff football, where defensive prowess, quarterback resilience, and coaching adaptability play crucial roles in advancing to the NFL’s culminating championship.