January 16, 2026
Finance

Goldman Sachs Forecasts 15% Investment Banking Growth in 2026 Amid Mixed Fiscal 2025 Results

Analyst Highlights Earnings Surpassing Expectations and Optimistic Outlook for Deal Activity and Profitability

Loading...
Loading quote...

Summary

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reported mixed financial outcomes for fiscal 2025, with investment banking poised for substantial growth in 2026. The fourth quarter was affected by significant markdowns and exit costs in the consumer platform segment. Despite a slight decline in net revenue, earnings per share exceeded consensus estimates. Analyst forecasts anticipate a 15% rise in investment banking revenues next year, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and robust client demand.

Key Points

Goldman Sachs experienced a mixed fiscal 2025 year-end, with Q4 results negatively impacted by $2.26 billion in markdowns and exit expenses related to its consumer Platform Solutions segment.
Net revenue in Q4 declined 3% year-over-year to $13.45 billion, missing analyst consensus, though GAAP earnings per share rose to $14.01, surpassing estimates.
Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala raised Goldman Sachs' share price target to $1,100 and maintained a Buy rating, highlighting consistent outperformance in EPS over the past year.
For fiscal 2026, investment banking revenue is projected to grow 15%, supported by favorable deal activity, a more accommodative regulatory environment, and stable market conditions.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) concluded fiscal year 2025 on a mixed note, facing challenges in its consumer platform business while simultaneously demonstrating financial resilience in other areas. The firm revealed fourth-quarter results impacted by considerable markdowns and exit-related expenses connected to its Platform Solutions segment, primarily related to the transition of Apple Card loans to held-for-sale status.

In this quarter, Goldman Sachs recorded $2.26 billion in markdowns aligned with the transfer of these loans, along with costs incurred from contract terminations. These factors contributed to a 3% decline in net revenue year-over-year, totaling $13.45 billion, falling short of the $13.79 billion consensus estimate. However, earnings on a GAAP basis rose notably to $14.01 per share from $11.95 in the previous year, outperforming the consensus estimate of $11.65.

An analyst from Bank of America Securities, Ebrahim H. Poonawala, reacted positively to these results, raising the price target for Goldman Sachs shares to $1,100 from $1,050 while maintaining a Buy rating. Poonawala highlighted that the company's consistent ability to exceed earnings per share (EPS) expectations by roughly 15% over the last four quarters has been a significant driver of its stock performance.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, the analyst expressed confidence in Goldman Sachs’ potential to achieve stronger-than-anticipated EPS growth. This optimism is underpinned by several factors: recent solid quarterly financial performances, revitalization in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offering (IPO) activity, a more supportive regulatory landscape, and management’s commitment to consistent growth and profitability.

Specifically, Poonawala forecasts a 15% increase in investment banking revenues for fiscal year 2026, complemented by a modest 3% rise in market revenues. He cautioned that these estimates are conservative and could prove higher if major macroeconomic shocks do not materialize. The analyst emphasized that expanding deal activity will likely be fueled by strong demand from both strategic clients and sponsors, along with a favorable regulatory environment, declining interest rates, and steady equity market conditions.

Although investment banking currently accounts for approximately 15% of Goldman Sachs' total revenue, Poonawala noted its significance in generating ancillary revenue streams across other business units, including financing, trading, and wealth management. Consequently, growth in this sector could have far-reaching positive effects throughout the firm.

Accordingly, the analyst revised upward his EPS forecast for fiscal 2026 to $58.64 from $57.30, reflecting expectations of slightly stronger revenue growth. The EPS projection for fiscal 2027 remained steady at $67.30, representing an 8.1% premium over the consensus forecast.

Following these developments, Goldman Sachs Group shares were trading at $964.60, down 1.15% at the time of reporting. The stock remains near its 52-week high of $981.25.

Risks
  • The investment banking growth forecast and EPS projections assume no significant macroeconomic shocks; adverse events could negatively affect these outcomes.
  • Residual challenges in the consumer platform business, exemplified by large markdowns and exit costs in Q4, may continue to exert pressure.
  • Market volatility or unfavorable changes in regulatory policies could disrupt the expected momentum in M&A, IPOs, and related deal activity.
  • Falling short of revenue consensus despite earnings outperformance suggests potential variability in top-line results impacting overall profitability.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
Search Articles
Category
Finance

Financial News

Ticker Sentiment
GS - positive
Related Articles
Oracle Shares Strengthen Amid Renewed Confidence in AI Sector Recovery

Oracle Corporation's stock showed notable gains as the software industry experiences a rebound, fuel...

Jumia Technologies Shares Decline Following Q4 Financial Results

Jumia Technologies AG experienced a notable decrease in its share price after announcing fourth-quar...

Analysts Adjust Forecasts After Pagaya Technologies’ Q4 Earnings and Lowered Guidance

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. released its fourth-quarter financial results showing earnings per share su...

Upwork's Q4 Earnings Prompt Mixed Analyst Price Target Adjustments Amid Revenue Beat

Upwork Inc announced Q4 2025 financial results exceeding analyst revenue and earnings predictions, w...

Major U.S. Stocks Climb Following Strong Earnings Reports and Positive Guidance

U.S. equity markets moved higher on Tuesday, driven by Datadog's significant share price increase fo...

Zillow Faces Stock Decline Following Quarterly Earnings That Marginally Beat Revenue Expectations

Zillow Group Inc recent quarterly results reflect steady revenue growth surpassing sector averages b...