Holiday Box Office Surge Driven by 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' and 'Marty Supreme'
December 28, 2025
News & Politics

Holiday Box Office Surge Driven by 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' and 'Marty Supreme'

James Cameron’s latest installment and A24’s indie hit propel year-end theatrical success

Summary

The recent holiday weekend saw a strong box office performance with James Cameron’s "Avatar: Fire and Ash" leading ticket sales at $88 million over the four-day period, complemented by A24’s sizeable indie success "Marty Supreme." Despite a subdued start compared to its predecessor, "Fire and Ash" demonstrated resilience in its second weekend, contributing to The Walt Disney Company's robust domestic and international revenue. The year concludes with encouraging theater attendance figures, though overall annual box office receipts remain on par with previous years.

Key Points

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" dominated the holiday box office with $88 million over four days, showing improved second-weekend retention compared to its predecessor, aiding Disney's overall domestic and international revenue streams.
A24's "Marty Supreme" emerged as a significant indie hit, grossing $27.1 million during the holiday period, outpacing the comedy "Anaconda" despite the latter’s broader studio backing, signaling potential in mid-budget, original films.
The film industry ended 2025 with a strong Christmas Day box office, yet the yearly domestic ticket sales remain flat compared to the prior year and below 2019 levels, indicating enduring challenges in theatrical attendance and increased competition from streaming platforms.

Across a festive holiday weekend bustling with movie enthusiasts, "Avatar: Fire and Ash" emerged as the top performer in U.S. theaters, amassing an estimated $88 million from Christmas Day through Sunday. This figure includes a weekend haul of $64 million, highlighting the film's significant draw under the direction of James Cameron as audiences revisited Pandora. While the domestic opening was softer relative to its 2022 predecessor, "Avatar: The Way of Water," the newer sequel maintained steadier momentum by decreasing only 28% in revenue in its second weekend compared to the prior film's 53% decline.

Within fourteen days of release, "Fire and Ash" has secured $217.7 million of the North American box office take for The Walt Disney Company. The global appeal adds a pronounced dimension, with the film garnering an impressive $542.7 million internationally to date. Given the production’s considerable $400 million budget, sustaining strong ticket sales throughout the New Year and into January will be critical for this installment to join the ranks of its predecessors—which rank among cinema's highest-grossing releases. Success would make the "Avatar" franchise the first to deliver three films exceeding $2 billion in worldwide box office revenue.

Another notable highlight of the holiday box office was "Marty Supreme," a 1950s-set table tennis drama from indie studio A24, directed by Josh Safdie. This film secured $27.1 million over the four-day holiday weekend, marking A24’s largest budget release to date and signaling a remarkable indie success on the theatrical front. The lead actor, Timothée Chalamet, actively promoted the film, including a high-profile appearance atop the Sphere in Las Vegas, underscoring his growing star power and ability to attract audiences amidst a marketplace frequently dominated by established franchises.

"Marty Supreme" even surpassed expectations by outperforming Sony Pictures’ comedy "Anaconda," a film featuring Jack Black and Paul Rudd, which brought in $23.7 million over the four-day period. Despite delivering a respectable figure within the comedy genre—a sector that many studios have distanced themselves from amid recent trends—the film’s middling critical reception, with a 50% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, likely hampered its broader traction.

Reflecting on the year’s closing weeks, Hollywood's theatrical activity has rebounded to reach its most robust Christmas Day box office since the pre-pandemic era, offering a positive capstone to what has been an unsettled year for the film industry. Expectations had previously been high entering 2025 as the first calendar year of the decade free from pandemic disruptions or strikes.

Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Comscore, described the period as a "really solid end to a tumultuous year," acknowledging the ups and downs experienced throughout. Looking ahead, he highlighted the promising slate for 2026, pointing to an "incredible" lineup of films slated for release.

However, year-to-date domestic ticket sales in 2025 are roughly parallel to last year’s disappointing total of $8.75 billion, with Comscore estimating the current year to close at approximately $8.76 billion, three days before its conclusion. This annual total contrasts with $11.4 billion achieved in 2019, demonstrating ongoing challenges for traditional theatrical attendance. Industry observers are closely monitoring moves by major streaming companies, such as Netflix’s potential acquisition of Warner Bros., signaling shifting market dynamics.

On an international scale, the highest-grossing film of 2025 has been the Chinese production "Ne Zha 2," with $2 billion in revenue. Additionally, the most-watched film domestically was "KPop Demon Hunters," a title distributed by Sony Pictures and sold to Netflix. Even prominent cultural events like the Oscars are transitioning to digital platforms such as YouTube, further illustrating changes in consumption.

Among content trends, PG-rated movies have outperformed PG-13 films for the second consecutive year domestically, generating $2.87 billion compared to $2.78 billion for the latter, according to Comscore data. Three leading Hollywood blockbusters in 2025 were all PG-rated: "Zootopia 2" with $1.42 billion globally, "Lilo & Stitch" with $1.04 billion, and "A Minecraft Movie" earning $958.2 million. "Zootopia 2" also demonstrated impressive longevity by adding $20 million in its fifth weekend.

Driven by the successful performances of "Zootopia 2," "Lilo & Stitch," and "Avatar: Fire and Ash," Disney reached a milestone as the first studio since 2019 to exceed $6 billion in worldwide box office revenues within a year.

Looking forward to 2026, industry anticipation is high for a box office rebound supported by highly awaited releases including "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," the live-action "Moana," "Toy Story 5," and "The Mandalorian and Grogu." The coming weeks, notably during school holidays and heightened leisure periods, are expected to be among the busiest for cinemas.

Meanwhile, several other films are positioned to capitalize on the crowded market, such as Lionsgate’s thriller "The Housemaid," starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, which has collected $46.7 million over two weeks; Angel Studios’ animated "David," a David and Goliath tale, earning $49.8 million; Paramount Pictures’ "The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants," with $38.2 million; and Focus Features’ "Song Sung Blue."

"Song Sung Blue," directed by Craig Brewer and featuring Kate Hudson and Hugh Jackman as members of a Neil Diamond cover band, opened with $12 million over the holiday period to strong audience approval, receiving an "A" CinemaScore, which may indicate good staying power in theaters.

The top 10 domestic box office rankings for the weekend, as estimated by Comscore and pending final confirmation, are:

  1. "Avatar: Fire and Ash," $64 million
  2. "Zootopia 2," $20 million
  3. "Marty Supreme," $17.5 million
  4. "The Housemaid," $15.4 million
  5. "Anaconda," $14.6 million
  6. "David," $12.7 million
  7. "The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants," $11.2 million
  8. "Song Sung Blue," $7.6 million
  9. "Wicked: For Good," $5.3 million
  10. "Five Nights at Freddy’s 2," $4.4 million
Risks
  • Sustained box office momentum is essential for "Avatar: Fire and Ash" to join the $2 billion club; failure to maintain strong sales in early 2026 could limit profitability and franchise milestones, impacting studio revenues in the entertainment sector.
  • Despite positive holiday performance, the flat year-over-year domestic ticket sales highlight vulnerabilities in the theater sector’s recovery, potentially threatening investments and valuation in cinema chains and related markets.
  • The growing influence of streaming platforms, illustrated by Netflix’s potential acquisition activities and digital distribution of popular content, poses a competitive risk to traditional theatrical distribution, influencing future market dynamics for studios and exhibitors.
Disclosure
This report is based solely on publicly available information and contains no personal opinions. Market participants should consider this information in the context of their own assessment and due diligence.
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