Unrelenting winter weather continues to impact the eastern United States as forecasters predict ongoing frigid temperatures and a potentially intense snowstorm poised to affect the Atlantic coastline. Below-freezing conditions are expected to persist into the first week of February, extending into areas that typically experience milder winters, such as Florida's peninsula.
Meteorological experts are currently tracking the development of a "bomb cyclone," a rapidly intensifying winter storm comparable in intensity to a hurricane, that is likely to form off the coast of the Carolinas between Friday evening and Saturday. Peter Mullinax, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Weather Prediction Center, stated, "A major winter storm appears to be coming to the Carolinas." Initial projections indicate the storm may deposit at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of snow with potential whiteout conditions in the Carolinas, northern Georgia, and southern Virginia.
Following its initial impact, the storm's trajectory could bring it inland along the Interstate 95 corridor late Saturday into Sunday, resulting in further substantial snowfall from Washington, D.C. through to Boston and possibly causing widespread disruptions. Alternatively, the system might only partially affect coastal areas such as Cape Cod or veer harmlessly into the Atlantic Ocean entirely, as forecast models have yet to converge on a definitive path.
James Belanger, vice president of meteorology at The Weather Channel, highlights that confidence is highest regarding significant snowfall across coastal Carolinas and Virginia, but the storm's movement beyond those areas remains uncertain. Private meteorologist Ryan Maue, formerly a chief scientist at NOAA, described the situation for the mid-Atlantic and northern regions as a "boom or bust," where a coastal path could result in a major event.
Initially, forecast models demonstrated considerable variability, with positions ranging from the storm moving out to sea to making landfall near Philadelphia. However, by Wednesday morning, consensus emerged that a powerful coastal storm was likely to develop east of North Carolina near the Delmarva Peninsula, albeit with disparities on its precise location.
Despite diminishing chances of the system bypassing the East Coast entirely, there remains some uncertainty, particularly for the segment between Washington, D.C., and New York City, where small deviations in the storm's center could drastically alter impact intensity and affected areas. AccuWeather's senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski anticipates it will be difficult for the southern mid-Atlantic to escape some measure of snowfall, ranging from minor to substantial amounts.
This impending storm is differentiated from the recent winter system which featured moist Pacific air merging with Arctic cold from a stretched polar vortex, with limited wind activity. The current manifestation is expected to generate strong winds, potentially gusting up to 40 miles per hour (65 kilometers per hour) even if snow totals near Washington remain low, leading to wind chills approaching subzero Fahrenheit (-18 Celsius), according to Mullinax.
Forecasters characterize the approaching storm as more representative of a classic nor’easter formed by a low-pressure system developing near the Gulf Coast that moves into the Atlantic and proceeds northward along the coast. A critical factor enhancing this storm’s strength is anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Gulf Stream, conditions partly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as noted by Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central. This warm water influx supplies additional moisture and energy, amplifying the storm's intensity as it approaches the Carolinas.
As the storm nears the coast, a dramatic drop in atmospheric pressure known as bombogenesis is anticipated, granting the system characteristics akin to a moderate hurricane, including sustained high winds and substantial snowfall, particularly in winter conditions. Should the storm make landfall, intense winds coupled with heavy snow accumulation could produce severe snowdrifts capable of burying vehicles, says Maue.
Meanwhile, the Arctic cold affecting the Midwest and Eastern U.S. is expected to persist through mid-February, punctuated only by slight warm-ups that remain below typical seasonal averages. This weekend’s storm is predicted to draw this frigid air deep into the southern United States, impacting Florida significantly. For instance, Orlando is expected to experience temperatures well below freezing, with highs reaching only 48 degrees Fahrenheit (9 degrees Celsius), setting new temperature records. Southern locations including Miami and Key West may also experience near-record lows on Sunday and Monday. These conditions raise concerns regarding potential damage to sensitive agricultural products, such as citrus fruits and strawberries.
After this weekend’s event, long-range weather models indicate the possibility of another storm system emerging near the end of the first week of February. Meteorologists suggest the East will remain embedded in a repetitive pattern dominated by bitter cold and recurring snowstorms due to the continuous influx of Arctic air and warm oceanic waters enhancing storm development.
Louis Uccellini, a former director of the National Weather Service and author of meteorological texts on winter storms, underscores that while East Coast snowstorms are not frequent occurrences, when they do arrive, they tend to accumulate in clusters, extending the period of disruption and challenges posed by winter conditions.