Minnesota's Special Elections Poised to Determine House Control Amid Local Tensions
January 26, 2026
News & Politics

Minnesota's Special Elections Poised to Determine House Control Amid Local Tensions

Contests in Twin Cities districts could shift legislative balance following recent high-profile incidents

Summary

Two special elections occurring in Minnesota's Democratic-leaning Twin Cities legislative districts will determine control of the Minnesota House of Representatives. Currently, Republicans hold a slim 67-65 majority after two Democrats left their seats for other positions. These elections follow incidents involving fatal shootings linked to federal immigration enforcement in Minneapolis, heightening local tensions.

Key Points

Two special legislative elections in Minnesota’s Twin Cities will determine control of the state House, currently held narrowly by Republicans with a 67-65 margin.
District 47A features a single Democratic candidate, Shelley Buck, while District 64A presents a contest between Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai and Republican Dan Walsh.
Recent fatal shootings involving federal immigration enforcement in Minneapolis have increased local political tensions ahead of the elections.

In the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, two pivotal special legislative elections are set for Tuesday, with potential to alter which party governs Minnesota's House of Representatives. The chamber’s balance is narrowly in Republican favor, with a 67-65 edge forged after two Democratic legislators vacated their seats to assume other roles in late 2024. For much of the past year, the House functioned under an agreement of power-sharing between Democrats and Republicans.

These races come not long after a U.S. Border Patrol agent fatally shot a man in Minneapolis, igniting protests and calls for a withdrawal of federal immigration authorities from the state. Additionally, in early January, an ICE officer shot and killed a Minneapolis woman amidst a federal immigration enforcement operation, contributing to heightened scrutiny and community unrest.

In District 47A, Democrat Shelley Buck stands as the sole candidate on the ballot, though voters may opt to write in other names. Buck brings experience from her tenure as an executive in an environmental nonprofit and leadership as president of the Prairie Island Tribal Council.

This district sits east of St. Paul, predominantly within Washington County but extending into part of Ramsey County. Data from 2024 show that the district favored Democrats significantly, with both state House candidate Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger and Democratic vice-presidential nominee Kamala Harris capturing roughly 61% of the vote. Hemmingsen-Jaeger subsequently won a special election to the state Senate in 2025.

Turning to District 64A, the race features Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai, a labor attorney with ties to a statewide teachers' union, against Republican Dan Walsh, a real estate management firm operator with background in cybersecurity and technology sales. Walsh previously ran unsuccessfully for this seat in both 2022 and 2024.

District 64A lies fully within Ramsey County and stretches substantially between St. Paul and Minneapolis. In 2024, it was strongly Democratic, with Rep. Kaohly Her and Kamala Harris each winning over 83% of the vote. Her was elected mayor of St. Paul in 2025, leading to this special election.

Given that Buck faces no challengers on the ballot in District 47A, this race is effectively uncontested. The Associated Press plans to call it promptly after polls close unless a significant organized write-in campaign emerges. In District 64A, Walsh must surpass his previous support levels—approximately 15% in 2022 and 17% in 2024—to mount a competitive bid. Because vote results are anticipated to be reported swiftly in one or two batches, an early call is possible if one candidate holds a decisive lead.

The Associated Press refrains from projecting outcomes and will declare a winner only when it is clear the trailing candidate cannot close the vote gap. If a race remains undecided, the AP will continue to report relevant updates, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations, clarifying the official status of the count.

In Minnesota, there are no automatic recounts for state legislative races. Candidates who lose may request publicly funded recounts if the vote margin is less than 0.5 percent. The AP may call a race with this margin if the lead is too large to be overturned by a recount or legal challenge.

Several additional details provide context for voters and analysts ahead of Tuesday’s contests:

  • Poll closing times: Polls close at 8 p.m. local time (9 p.m. Eastern).
  • Ballot content: Special elections for Minnesota House Districts 47A and 64A are to be decided.
  • Voter eligibility: Registered voters residing in the respective districts may vote. Minnesota permits same-day registration at polling stations.
  • Registered voters and past turnout: As of June 2025, both districts had nearly 28,000 registered voters. District 47A saw nearly 23,000 participants in the 2024 general election and approximately 19,000 in 2022, while District 64A’s turnout was about 25,000 in 2024 and above 21,000 in 2022.
  • Early voting trends: In 2024, roughly half of District 47A ballots were submitted in advance, up from 31% in 2022. For District 64A, 41% of 2024 votes were cast early compared to 27% in 2022.
  • Current early ballots: Prior to election day, approximately 300 ballots had been cast in District 47A and about 400 in District 64A.
  • Vote counting timeline: Historically, vote results have been first reported between 10:49 p.m. and 1:09 a.m. Eastern time, with final tallies nearing completion shortly thereafter.
  • Absentee vote reporting: In past elections, absentee and Election Day votes in Ramsey and Washington counties were released simultaneously throughout the evening.
Risks
  • Unpredictability in voter turnout and early voting patterns could affect the speed and clarity of election outcomes, impacting political control in Minnesota.
  • Potential for organized write-in campaigns, though not currently evident in District 47A, could introduce uncertainty in otherwise uncontested races.
  • Close vote margins under 0.5% may prompt recount requests, potentially delaying official results and prolonging political uncertainty.
Disclosure
This article is based solely on available factual information regarding Minnesota’s special legislative elections and associated local events, without speculation or projection of outcomes beyond reported data.
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