January 28, 2026
Finance

MSCI Sees Solid Quarterly Growth Backed by Strong Subscription and Asset-Linked Revenue

Quarterly Report Highlights Robust Profitability and Encouraging Outlook for 2026 Expenses and Cash Flow

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Summary

MSCI Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter, driven by steady subscription growth and elevated asset-based fees. The company demonstrated improved profitability with expanding operating margins and adjusted EBITDA alongside a strong retention rate and rising total run rate figures. Financial guidance for 2026 outlines controlled expenses, capital expenditures, and healthy cash flow generation, reinforcing MSCI's position in the market amid evolving investment intelligence needs.

Key Points

MSCI exceeded earnings per share and revenue expectations in Q4 2025 driven by consistent subscription growth and a notable increase in asset-based fees.
Operating income and margins improved compared to the prior year, supported by higher adjusted EBITDA and expanded operating efficiency.
Retention rates remain strong, with Total Run Rate revenue up 13% year over year, reflecting sustained client engagement.
Guidance for 2026 anticipates controlled operating expenses, moderate capital expenditures, and solid free cash flow generation, reinforcing financial discipline.

On Wednesday, shares of MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI) rose following the release of fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, bolstered by consistent subscription growth and increased asset-linked fee income contributing to improved profitability.

MSCI posted adjusted earnings per share of $4.66 for the last quarter, outperforming the anticipated $4.57 consensus. Revenue for the period reached approximately $822.5 million, slightly surpassing forecasts near $819.4 million. The company recorded a 10.6% increase in operating revenues year over year, with organic operating revenue growing by 10.2%, reflecting robust business expansion.

Recurring subscription revenues advanced 7.8% during the quarter, highlighting steady client engagement and retention. Asset-based fees, which are directly influenced by market valuations and inflows, soared by 20.7%, underscoring MSCI’s growing presence in areas tied to market-driven assets such as exchange-traded fund (ETF) products linked to its indices.

Operating income rose 14.4% to $463.6 million, with operating margins improving from 54.5% to 56.4%, signaling enhanced operational efficiency. Adjusted EBITDA climbed significantly to $512.0 million compared to $452.3 million a year earlier, with the adjusted EBITDA margin widening to 62.2% from 60.8%.

The company’s Total Run Rate—the annualized recurring revenue measure—stood at $3.302 billion as of December 31, 2025, marking a 13% increase. Client retention remained high, with a rate of 93.4% in the quarter, compared to 93.1% in the comparable 2024 period.

Workforce expansion was modest, with employee numbers increasing by 2.2% to 6,268 by the end of 2025. Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $36.3 million. Operating activities netted $501.1 million in cash, up 16.4%, reflecting improved collections from customers, offset partially by rising expenses and income tax payments. Free cash flow increased 17.8% to $464.8 million.

Cash and cash equivalents held were $515.3 million at the close of the quarter.

Henry A. Fernandez, Chairman and CEO of MSCI, noted the company’s successful achievement of notable milestones in the fourth quarter, including its 11th consecutive year of double-digit adjusted EPS growth and a record asset-based fee run rate, largely driven by inflows into MSCI’s ETF-linked index products. Fernandez emphasized momentum across product lines and diverse client segments, while underscoring the company's strategic focus on leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance investment intelligence solutions.

The company’s Board of Directors declared a first quarter 2026 cash dividend of $2.05 per share, payable on February 27, 2026.

Financial Guidance for 2026

MSCI provided an outlook for the full year 2026, forecasting operating expenses between $1.49 billion and $1.53 billion. Adjusted EBITDA expenses are expected to range from $1.305 billion to $1.335 billion.

Interest expenses, inclusive of amortization related to financing fees, are projected between $274 million and $280 million. Depreciation and amortization costs should total $185 million to $195 million.

The effective tax rate for 2026 is anticipated to fall within 18% to 20%. Capital expenditures are planned at $160 million to $170 million.

MSCI expects net cash provided by operating activities to be $1.64 billion to $1.69 billion, resulting in free cash flow projected between $1.47 billion and $1.53 billion for the year.

Market Response

Following the earnings announcement, MSCI shares climbed approximately 3.48% to $601.98 during Wednesday’s trading session, indicating investor approval of the company’s performance and outlook.

Conclusion

MSCI's strong quarterly results underscored by increasing subscription momentum and enhanced asset-based fee revenue have supported expansion in profitability and operating efficiency. The detailed and conservative guidance for 2026 expenses and cash flow further illustrates disciplined financial management and strategic investment in growth areas, including AI capabilities tailored to global investing intelligence.

Risks
  • Market-driven assets and valuations directly affect MSCI’s asset-based fee revenue, which can fluctuate with market conditions.
  • Operating expenses and capital expenditures are forecasted ranges, indicating some uncertainty in future spending and investment.
  • Interest expense and amortization levels affect net profitability and could rise due to financing activities.
  • Tax rate variability could influence net income and cash flow outcomes within the estimated 18%–20% effective tax rate range.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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