January 30, 2026
Finance

Shares of C3.ai Retreat Amid Merger Discussions and Market Uncertainty

Investors weigh the implications of potential Automation Anywhere acquisition talks and recent leadership transitions

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Summary

Shares of C3.ai Inc experienced a decline following earlier gains this week, influenced by news of merger talks with Automation Anywhere, a private automation software firm. The enterprise AI provider, which caters to federal and industrial clients, is navigating strategic shifts after its founder stepped down as CEO. Despite operational improvements, their stock faces technical resistance and mixed momentum indicators as the market anticipates upcoming earnings.

Key Points

C3.ai shares declined after surging earlier in the week due to merger rumors with Automation Anywhere.
The enterprise AI firm recently underwent leadership changes, with founder Thomas Siebel stepping down as CEO.
December quarter showed improved financial performance with narrower losses and better-than-expected revenue mainly driven by federal contracts.
Technical indicators suggest the stock is under pressure, trading below key moving averages and nearing 52-week lows.

C3.ai Inc (NYSE:AI) saw its stock price pull back on Friday, erasing a portion of the gains made earlier in the week. This stock movement follows reports that the company is engaged in merger discussions with Automation Anywhere, a privately held software company specializing in automation solutions. The talks have stirred speculation about a potential acquisition that could provide Automation Anywhere with a pathway to enter the public market.

C3.ai is known for offering enterprise-level artificial intelligence software applications across various sectors including energy, manufacturing, and government. Its clientele includes prominent organizations such as the U.S. Air Force. Automation Anywhere, valued at approximately $6.8 billion as of 2019, focuses on software that streamlines repetitive business operations.

The company has yet to officially comment on these reported negotiations.

This development comes in the context of recent leadership changes within C3.ai. The company’s founder, Thomas Siebel, has stepped down as CEO, signaling a potential strategic redirection. The firm is reportedly evaluating several options, among them a sale, as it seeks to strengthen its position.

Operationally, C3.ai has exhibited signs of progress. In its December quarterly report, the company disclosed a smaller-than-expected net loss alongside revenues slightly exceeding projections, amounting to roughly $75 million. This performance was largely supported by its business with federal government clients and an increase in sizable, high-value contracts.

Newly appointed CEO Stephen Ehikian has highlighted federal customers as a critical growth component. He pointed to several advantages, including increasing adoption of commercial AI solutions, broader initiatives for AI deployment, and reindustrialization efforts such as the Maritime Industrial Base project, all of which contribute positively to the company's growth outlook.

From a technical perspective, C3.ai's stock is facing challenges. It is currently trading 16.3% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 28.7% below its 100-day SMA, indicating difficulty in sustaining upward momentum both in short and long-term trends. Over the past year, shares have declined by approximately 65.13%, approaching their 52-week low rather than their high.

The stock's relative strength index (RSI) currently stands at 37.57, a value considered to represent neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positioned below its signal line, illustrating bearish pressure. The co-occurrence of a neutral RSI with a bearish MACD suggests a complex and uncertain momentum scenario.

Technical indicators identify key price thresholds for C3.ai stock: resistance is marked near $14.50, while support is noted at $13.00.

The company's business model revolves around delivering artificial intelligence software as a service (SaaS). Its offerings facilitate swift development, deployment, and operation of large-scale enterprise AI applications suitable for any infrastructure.

Investor sentiment remains cautious as attention turns toward C3.ai’s upcoming earnings report, scheduled for February 25. Analysts forecast an earnings per share (EPS) loss of 46 cents, a decline from a loss of 12 cents year-over-year. Revenue estimates stand at about $75.87 million, down from $98.78 million the previous year.

The stock carries a consensus rating of Hold, with analysts’ average price target at $26.41. Diverging perspectives among analysts include:

  • Wedbush maintaining an Outperform rating with a target price of $20.00 (as of December 4, 2025).
  • DA Davidson holding an Underperform rating with a target at $13.00 (as of December 4, 2025).
  • Canaccord Genuity recommending a Hold rating with a target price of $16.00 (as of December 4, 2025).

On Friday, shares of C3.ai fell 1.80% to $12.04 at the time of market close, according to Benzinga Pro data. The surrounding market volatility has created dynamic trading opportunities, with some traders capitalizing on sharp price swings through short-term strategies.

Risks
  • The potential acquisition is still speculative with no formal confirmation from C3.ai, adding uncertainty to the stock’s outlook.
  • Earnings estimates forecast a larger per-share loss and reduced revenues compared to the previous year.
  • Bearish technical signals and continued downward momentum could weigh on investor confidence.
  • The company's reliance on federal contracts exposes it to risks related to government spending and policy changes.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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