January 26, 2026
Finance

UPS Forecasts Dimmer Fourth Quarter Earnings Amid Revenue Decline Expectations

A Collection of Leading Analysts Adjust Their Price Targets Ahead of UPS's Upcoming Earnings Report

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Summary

United Parcel Service Inc. is poised to reveal its fourth-quarter financial performance, with consensus estimates pointing to a decrease in both earnings per share and revenue compared to the previous year. Despite a stronger-than-anticipated third-quarter showing and optimistic sales guidance, the market has responded with modest share price declines. Leading financial analysts have revised their outlooks on UPS, adjusting price targets while maintaining mostly neutral to positive ratings.

Key Points

UPS is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of $2.20 per share, down from $2.75 per share in the previous year.
Projected quarterly revenue stands at $24.01 billion, a decline compared to $25.3 billion from the prior year.
Despite better-than-expected third-quarter results and positive sales guidance, UPS shares recently declined by 1.2% to close near $108.
Prominent analysts have largely maintained neutral to positive stock ratings while raising price targets, reflecting cautious optimism.

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS), headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, is scheduled to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter before the market opens on Tuesday, January 27. Market analysts forecast that UPS will report earnings of approximately $2.20 per share for this period, reflecting a decrease from the $2.75 per share earned during the same quarter last year. Additionally, the consensus revenue estimate stands at around $24.01 billion, down from $25.3 billion generated a year earlier, according to Benzinga Pro data.


UPS's previous earnings disclosure on October 28 highlighted a quarterly performance that surpassed expectations. Alongside this, the company provided fourth-quarter sales guidance that was more optimistic than analyst estimates. Nonetheless, investor sentiment has shown some caution, as evidenced by the company's stock closing at $107.98 with a 1.2% decrease on the preceding Friday.


Monitoring the analytical community’s perspective, several highly regarded experts have recently updated their assessments and price targets for UPS stock ahead of the earnings call.

  • Jonathan Chappell of Evercore ISI Group has reaffirmed an In-Line rating on UPS shares while elevating his price target from $94 to $113, indicating confidence in the company's valuation potential. Chappell’s analyst track record boasts a 68% accuracy rate and the revision came on January 21, 2026.
  • Bascome Majors, an analyst at Susquehanna, continues to maintain a Neutral stance on the stock but has increased the price target from $105 to $115 as of January 20, 2026. This analyst’s forecast accuracy stands at 67%.
  • Brian Ossenbeck from JP Morgan retained a neutral rating while raising the price target marginally from $97 to $99 on January 12, 2026. Ossenbeck’s predictions have a strong 71% accuracy record.
  • David Vernon of Bernstein has upheld an Outperform rating for UPS, revising the price target upward from $122 to $125 as of January 9, 2026. He has a 60% accuracy rate in his stock calls.
  • Ariel Rosa, representing Citigroup, maintained a Buy recommendation and raised the price target from $120 to $126 on January 8, 2026. This analyst exhibits the highest accuracy among the cohort at 77%.

The revisions in price targets across this group signal nuanced optimism, despite the challenging earnings backdrop suggested by the revenue and profit forecasts. Investors considering UPS stock are advised to weigh these expert perspectives, alongside the company's recent operational performance and the evolving economic conditions impacting the parcel delivery industry.


For those interested in detailed market analysis and metrics on UPS, Benzinga Rankings provide comprehensive data covering momentum, quality, value, and price trends over various time horizons.

Risks
  • Expected decrease in quarterly earnings per share might impact investor confidence.
  • Projected decline in revenue suggests potential challenges in sales performance.
  • Share price volatility evident from recent decline leading up to earnings announcement.
  • Analysts’ raised price targets assume successful performance; underperformance could lead to downward revisions.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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Ticker Sentiment
UPS - neutral
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