In 2025, Oklo has emerged as one of the most talked-about companies within the nuclear technology arena, registering an impressive stock gain of more than 275%. Backed by high-profile investors like Sam Altman, it has carved a niche as a frontrunner in developing innovative reactors designed to fuel next-generation data centers, particularly those serving AI applications. The centerpiece of its technology is the "Aurora powerhouse," touted for its compact design and specialized application in powering artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Despite the buzz, Oklo remains at a very preliminary stage. The company has yet to generate any revenue and does not possess the necessary approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to begin the commercial construction of its reactors. The inaugural revenue generation is not anticipated until 2027 and is projected to be approximately $16 million that year, emphasizing just how early the company stands in its commercialization journey.
While this foundational stage warrants caution, the core of the investment concern lies elsewhere: the stock's valuation suggests that the market is pricing Oklo as if it were on the cusp of large-scale reactor deployment rather than demonstration.
Valuation Discrepancies and Market Expectations
At the time of writing, Oklo’s shares are valued near $82 each, conferring upon the company a market capitalization approaching $12 billion. When this valuation is measured against its forecasted 2027 sales, it implies a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 750. This is a striking figure, especially when compared to other players in the nuclear space.
Take NuScale Power, for example, a rival firm with an existing small modular reactor design that is already approved by the NRC. NuScale’s market cap stands at about $5 billion, and its price-to-sales ratio based on 2027 forecasts is approximately 16. This juxtaposition highlights a significant mismatch in market expectations versus developmental reality.
In effect, investors appear to be assigning Oklo the valuation status of a company ready for commercial rollout, while NuScale’s valuation seems more realistically aligned with its current developmental stage, which still involves proving the commercial viability of microreactors in the contemporary energy market.
Developmental Challenges on the Horizon
Beyond valuation concerns, other substantive challenges underscore the risks tied to Oklo’s proposition. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in April 2025 outlined both the advantages and obstacles associated with nuclear-powered data centers.
The DOE affirmed several benefits that align with Oklo’s technology, such as consistent 24/7 power availability, a compact and flexible design, and the ability to function independently of the electrical grid. These factors support the vision of deploying nuclear reactors to enhance data center operations, especially for AI workloads.
Nonetheless, there are critical challenges ahead. The supply of uranium fuel within the United States has yet to be fully established, particularly concerning high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which advanced reactors like those Oklo is developing will require. Additionally, capital expenditures necessary for the construction of new reactor types are potentially substantial, which could impose financial burdens on developers.
Perhaps most crucially, the licensing and deployment timelines remain lengthy and uncertain. The DOE projects that widespread commercial use of such reactors is unlikely before the 2030s, indicating that Oklo faces a considerable wait before its technology can become mainstream.
Investment Perspective and Recommendations
Oklo certainly presents an innovative edge in a sector that is gaining more attention for its potential role in future energy and data infrastructure. However, this innovation comes intertwined with a valuation that leaves little room for any operational or developmental setbacks. The company’s current market status suggests expectations that may be overly optimistic relative to where Oklo stands today.
Given these factors, investors should exercise prudence. Monitoring Oklo’s progress while maintaining a cautious stance appears advisable. Those with a high risk tolerance might consider establishing a modest position, but it is important to only allocate capital that can be comfortably risked given the uncertainties ahead.